Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 030305

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1105 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020

Issued at 1052 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020

Quiet weather is anticipated overnight across eastern Upper and
northern Lower MI. High pressure is in place, with an associated
dry air mass and light winds. This is a good radiational cooling
scenario, even better than last night, with overnight lows in the
upper 20s/lower 30s likely. Going forecast was in good shape
overall and only minor hourly tweaks were needed at this time.


.NEAR TERM...(Through Friday)
Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020

...Another sunny day on Friday...

High impact weather potential: none.

A sparkling day across northern MI. A skinny ridge of high
pressure extends from far northern Ontario, down the length of
Lake MI, and on toward IND/SDF. Early morning fog/stratus is gone
(it hung on longest in western Antrim Co, and on the Canadian
waters of Whitefish Bay). Full sun otherwise, and temps away from
lake breezes are in the 50s to around 60f. Coastal sites are in
the 40s. Dew points have crashed hard with increased vertical
mixing, with lots of low-mid teens in interior sections. That
mixing is also leading to the occasional gust of nnw wind,
especially in ne lower MI.

There is not much to worry about in the near term. High pressure
remains nearly stationary tonight, and only grudgingly drifts
toward Lake Huron on Friday. This will maintain a rather dry
airmass. We will start to see the mid and upper levels moisten a
touch on Friday, perhaps enough to result in partly cloudy
conditions in nw lower MI, w of TVC-CAD. Otherwise mostly clear or
just clear works. After a day of prominent vertical mixing, we
should not be as prone to fog tonight. That said, temp-dew point
spreads are somewhat small in places where the lake breeze has
moved inland. A touch of fog may not be impossible in some near-
coastal sections late tonight (especially in the broader Straits
region). Min temps tonight mid 20s to lower 30s.

Max temps Friday from mid-upper 40s in some coastal areas, to
around 60f interior of northern lower. Do think we will see dew
points in interior sections crash hard again Friday, and guidance
RH values have been sharply lowered. Not much wind though, so fire
wx concerns are manageable.


.SHORT TERM...(Friday night through Sunday)
Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020

...Showers expected Saturday...

High Impact Weather...Minimal.

Forecast Concerns...Timing in/out expected showers this weekend.

The focus of this forecast will be the movement of the fairly deep
western trough which has been nearly stationary over the last couple
of days (it`s been held back by downstream ridging). This trough
will slowly weaken over the next 24-36 hours and finally move across
the western Great Lakes region during the first half of this
weekend. A band of rain showers is about all that will be left with
this system by the time it gets here, mainly during the day on
Saturday (as well as slightly cooler temperatures). Upper level
heights increase and surface high pressure moves in on Sunday. This
is expected to lead to a return to milder and rain free conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020

High Impact Weather...None is expected.

Forecast Concerns...How warm it will be early next week.

A nearly zonal flow aloft is expected to lead to mild temperatures
while disturbances moving through the flow result in periodic rain
chances next week (the April showers bring May flowers theme applies
here). Cooler air then looks like it will return toward the tail end
of this forecast period but not before a few spots make a run at the
coveted 60 degree mark early in the week!


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1103 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020

VFR conditions expected across the northern Lower MI terminals
through the 06Z TAF valid time. A slow approaching front will
gradually have clouds beginning to thicken/lower toward the end of
the TAF period, but they will still be well into the VFR category.
Light winds are expected overall, with some lake wind component
likely by Friday afternoon at KTVC and KAPN.


Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020

Light winds tonight and Friday, as high pressure drifts slowly
eastward across the area. Lake breezes will turn winds onshore
again on Friday. A bit of a se breeze Fri night, ahead of cold
front that swing winds nw on Saturday. Winds/waves expected to
remain below advisory levels.




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