Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 010346

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1146 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Issued at 924 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Another cool and mostly quiet night ahead. A ridge of high
pressure continues to poke into northern MI from the east. Mainly
clear skies and light winds will result in significant radiational
cooling. Temps are already in the 40s in most locales, and some
fog has already emerged at MBL/Beaver Isl/Ludington. Patchy fog
will continue to slowly develop tonight. In addition, some mid
clouds are developing se-ward into Chippewa Co. Expect this to
expand tonight, as mid-level fgen is increasing ahead of building
high pressure in central Canada.

Min temps again mostly in the 30s.


.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 303 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Fairly zonal flow evident aloft this
afternoon across the Great Lakes while upper-level low pressure
drops in to the Intermountain West. Hurricane Ian continues to
make progress into South Carolina while surface high pressure
dominates northern Michigan tonight through at least the upcoming

Primary Forecast Concerns: Temperature trends.

Little in the way of sensible weather is anticipated through the
near-term forecast period as ~1028mb high pressure remains
situated atop the Great Lakes region. Lots of sunshine and late
afternoon temperatures topping out in the 60s area-wide will be
the rule.

Heading into tonight, mainly clear skies and light winds should
promote another sizable diurnal swing with low temperatures falling
into the 30s across much of the forecast area. Some lower 40s near
the Great Lakes coasts. Otherwise, some patchy fog likely to develop
again tonight, mainly after midnight, and perhaps locally dense in a
few spots.


.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...Nice Stretch of Weather...

High Impact Weather...None is expected.

The quiet and unseasonably mild weather continues for the most part
this weekend into early next week. There is a weak, moisture starved
cold front that looks like it slips across the region Saturday
afternoon and evening but with little noticeable impact on the
sensible weather (except for perhaps a period of mid/high level
clouds followed by slightly cooler temperatures Sunday). Daytime
highs will be mainly in the 60s (except for some upper 50s Sunday)
with lows in the 30s and low 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...Nice then Turning Cooler and Possibly Unsettled...

High Impact Weather...None is expected at this time.

Extended models vary on the timing but the upper level ridge is
expected to eventually break down toward the middle of next week.
This will put an end to the very nice early fall weather. In the
meantime, it looks like it will remain unseasonably warm until at
least Tuesday, possibly even into Wednesday (timing could change).
Cooler and possibly showery conditions then follow for later next
week as a trough digs into the region from the northwest. Can`t
totally rule out a few wet snow flakes across the higher terrain
Thursday night. Highs in the 60s will be replaced by highs in the
upper 40s to mid 50s to end the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1146 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Pretty quiet, with a ridge of high pressure sitting over northern
MI. Light winds and clear skies will leave us prone to ground fog.
MVFR to IFR vsbys are possible late tonight at CIU/PLN/MBL.
Otherwise VFR. Somewhat breezier northerly winds develop late


Issued at 303 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

High pressure remains overhead across the Great Lakes region this
afternoon into the upcoming weekend. Winds/waves expected to
remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through at least
Saturday morning. Some potential for advisory level gusts returns
Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, mainly over Lake Huron.




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