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000
FXUS63 KARX 291728
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1228 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023

Key Messages:

 - Above normal temperatures expected this week as highs climb
   into the mid 80s to low 90s by mid to late week.

 - A dry Memorial Day ahead. Chances for periodic scattered
   showers and non-severe thunderstorms return to the forecast
   starting mid-week.

Memorial Day Forecast:

It looks to be another pleasant day as quiet conditions continue for
the holiday. As we have seen through the weekend, the main forecast
concern continues to be with temperatures and dewpoints. Similar to
previous forecasts, adjustments have been made for today to lower
afternoon dewpoints, increase high temperatures, and decrease low
temperatures (in our cold favored areas). High temperatures today
will be in the low to mid 80s for most, and with low relative
humidity values it should still feel quite comfortable out. Enjoy
your Memorial Day!

Tuesday Through The Weekend:

The Rex Block will continue to slide eastward and break down through
the start of this period. A shift to more southerly flow will allow
for increasing temperatures and dewpoints (50s to low 60s). With
this, model guidance is pointing at periodic afternoon and evening
shower and thunderstorm chances developing through the week.
However, with a lack of strong mid/upper level forcing and weak flow
aloft, showers and thunderstorms look to be more scattered in
nature. Current guidance would start to bring in these chances into
western portions of the forecast area Tuesday afternoon/evening as a
weak shortwave trough lifts across MN. The 29.00Z HREF ensemble mean
shows QPF values mainly less than a tenth of an inch with any
showers/storms that do develop, with a few isolated pockets of
locally higher values. Blended guidance continues these chances
through much of the week, but as mentioned in the earlier discussion
it will be difficult to pin down details. Thus, precipitation
chances remain a bit more broad across the area for now.

Increased confidence remains in above normal temperatures this week
as models continue to show 850 mb temperatures pushing into +15 to
+17 C. NAEFS 850 mb mean temperature percentiles would suggest this
is within the 90th percentile for some portions of the forecast
area. This supports high temperatures increasing into the upper 80s
to even low 90s for some through the end of the week. There also
remains small spread (~5 F) between the 25th and 75th percentiles of
the NBM, further increasing confidence. However, with some
dependency on the upper level pattern, will note that spread begins
to increase heading into the weekend and start of the new week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023

VFR conditions to continue through the TAF period.

Winds generally from the south will hold around 10 knots or less.
For KRST after 12z tomorrow morning. Precipitation chances begin
increasing from the west, but did not mention in the TAFs at this
time. Confidence was too low on the precise locations of any
shower or storm as they are anticipated to be very sparse in
overall coverage.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EMS
AVIATION...Peters