Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 291721 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 121 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A high pressure ridge will persist over the local area through much of this week. A very weak cold front may cross the area Friday before high pressure builds back in for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Update... Most of the forecast remains valid per latest trends in observations and model guidance. Only change was to use a 50%/50% blend of our previous forecast and NBM 75th percentile guidance to boost our forecast highs for late this afternoon. Expect daytime heating and synoptic scale low-level WAA to allow highs to reach the lower to upper 80`s inland from Lake Erie. However, a lake breeze will cause highs to reach mainly the 70`s to 80F within about 5 miles of Lake Erie. Hourly temperatures, dew points, and apparent temperatures through this early evening were QC`d accordingly. Previous Discussion... An upper-level low located over western South Carolina will slowly drift to the coast of North Carolina tonight, remaining there through Tuesday. Easterly flow in association with this upper low will bring moisture south of the region. Forcing/flow and moisture advection is just a bit too far south for any meaningful PoPs to be added for any of our forecast area. Temperatures continue to build each day, with highs raising a few degrees (compared to yesterday) to low-mid 80s, except for the lakeshore areas where an afternoon lakebreeze will keep temperatures a bit cooler. This lakebreeze may get pretty far inland with background northeast flow aiding in its inland progression. For Tuesday, temperatures may be a degree or two warmer, though the biggest difference will be near the lakeshore. A lake breeze is once again expected, though may not make it as far inland due to ambient southeast flow.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The main weather story for the rest of this week into the weekend will be the very quiet, summertime weather pattern over the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley region. For those folks that are lucky enough to have air conditioning, those units will be getting an early summer workout this week. A mid and upper level ridge of high pressure that has been nearly stationary over the Great Lakes region for over a week will slowly strengthen and expand by the middle of this week. These type of summertime patterns can slowly feed on itself over time and can be hard to break down from the grips of the ridge if the system stays over the same region for a lengthy period of time. The forecast remains much of the same with very warm and dry conditions this week and possibly lasting through next weekend as well. High temperatures by the middle of the week will likely approach climb through the middle and upper 80s. We could even several locations hit that 90 degree mark for the first time this year. The potential for lower 90s will be more towards northwest and central Ohio, away for the lakeshore. Because of the drier airmass and relatively lower humidity values, we will not have much of a heat index to deal with. The apparent temperatures will be near the actual air temperature if not a degree or two lower than the afternoon air temps. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... That upper level ridge will slowly drift westward from the Great Lakes region into the Upper Midwest by the end of the week as it expands and still acting like a huge block or wall with the flow of weather systems. We have bumped up forecast high temps for the end of the week into the weekend above the guidance. Models indicate that 850 mb temps will approach 20C by Friday and Saturday, which is very warm. Summer heat will be firmly in place for the end of the week with upper 80s and lower 90s for Friday and Saturday afternoon. Unfortunately, the forecast will remain dry through next week with no indication of rain chances at this time. Even though the center of the ridge will be located over the North Central CONUS and Upper Midwest by next weekend, we will continue to be dominated by that dome of heat and dry weather. If there is something to hope for on the horizon, model guidance is showing a cold front diving southward out of central Canada on the eastern flank of that upper level ridge and may track across the Great Lakes by next Monday. SOme limited rain chances and spotty rainfall may come from that system. Keep our fingers crossed! && .AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
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VFR and fair weather are expected through 18Z/Tues as a surface ridge affects our region. Simultaneously, the parent high moves from near Lake Huron toward the Gulf of Maine. This will allow our region`s northeasterly winds around 5 to 15 knots to become light and variable this evening. Regional surface winds then become southeasterly around 5 to 10 knots by early Tues morning. However, a northerly to northeasterly lake breeze around 5 to 10 knots should develop along and very near the southern shore of Lake Erie, including at KERI, by early Tuesday afternoon. Outlook...VFR expected through Saturday.
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&& .MARINE... High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern over Lake Erie through Saturday. Predominantly northeasterly to southeasterly winds are expected. Winds will tend to be onshore each late morning through early evening due to lake breeze development. Wind speeds of 5 to 10 knots and waves of 3 feet or less are forecast through the whole period. The winds could be up to 15 knots over the open basin of the lake during the afternoons each day. No headlines are anticipated on the lake this week. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Saunders NEAR TERM...Jaszka/Saunders SHORT TERM...Griffin LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...Jaszka MARINE...Griffin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.