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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 291721
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
121 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A high pressure ridge will persist over the local area through
much of this week. A very weak cold front may cross the area
Friday before high pressure builds back in for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --
Update...

Most of the forecast remains valid per latest trends in
observations and model guidance. Only change was to use a
50%/50% blend of our previous forecast and NBM 75th percentile
guidance to boost our forecast highs for late this afternoon.
Expect daytime heating and synoptic scale low-level WAA to allow
highs to reach the lower to upper 80`s inland from Lake Erie.
However, a lake breeze will cause highs to reach mainly the 70`s
to 80F within about 5 miles of Lake Erie. Hourly temperatures,
dew points, and apparent temperatures through this early evening
were QC`d accordingly.

Previous Discussion...

An upper-level low located over western South Carolina will
slowly drift to the coast of North Carolina tonight, remaining
there through Tuesday. Easterly flow in association with this
upper low will bring moisture south of the region. Forcing/flow
and moisture advection is just a bit too far south for any
meaningful PoPs to be added for any of our forecast area.

Temperatures continue to build each day, with highs raising a
few degrees (compared to yesterday) to low-mid 80s, except for
the lakeshore areas where an afternoon lakebreeze will keep
temperatures a bit cooler. This lakebreeze may get pretty far
inland with background northeast flow aiding in its inland
progression. For Tuesday, temperatures may be a degree or two
warmer, though the biggest difference will be near the
lakeshore. A lake breeze is once again expected, though may not
make it as far inland due to ambient southeast flow.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The main weather story for the rest of this week into the weekend
will be the very quiet, summertime weather pattern over the Great
Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley region. For those folks that are lucky
enough to have air conditioning, those units will be getting an
early summer workout this week. A mid and upper level ridge of high
pressure that has been nearly stationary over the Great Lakes region
for over a week will slowly strengthen and expand by the middle of
this week. These type of summertime patterns can slowly feed on
itself over time and can be hard to break down from the grips of
the ridge if the system stays over the same region for a lengthy
period of time.

The forecast remains much of the same with very warm and dry
conditions this week and possibly lasting through next weekend as
well. High temperatures by the middle of the week will likely
approach climb through the middle and upper 80s. We could even
several locations hit that 90 degree mark for the first time this
year. The potential for lower 90s will be more towards northwest and
central Ohio, away for the lakeshore. Because of the drier airmass
and relatively lower humidity values, we will not have much of a
heat index to deal with. The apparent temperatures will be near the
actual air temperature if not a degree or two lower than the
afternoon air temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
That upper level ridge will slowly drift westward from the Great
Lakes region into the Upper Midwest by the end of the week as it
expands and still acting like a huge block or wall with the flow of
weather systems. We have bumped up forecast high temps for the end
of the week into the weekend above the guidance. Models indicate
that 850 mb temps will approach 20C by Friday and Saturday, which is
very warm. Summer heat will be firmly in place for the end of the
week with upper 80s and lower 90s for Friday and Saturday afternoon.
Unfortunately, the forecast will remain dry through next week with
no indication of rain chances at this time. Even though the center
of the ridge will be located over the North Central CONUS and Upper
Midwest by next weekend, we will continue to be dominated by that
dome of heat and dry weather. If there is something to hope for on
the horizon, model guidance is showing a cold front diving southward
out of central Canada on the eastern flank of that upper level ridge
and may track across the Great Lakes by next Monday. SOme limited
rain chances and spotty rainfall may come from that system. Keep our
fingers crossed!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...

-- Changed Discussion --
VFR and fair weather are expected through 18Z/Tues as a surface
ridge affects our region. Simultaneously, the parent high moves
from near Lake Huron toward the Gulf of Maine. This will allow
our region`s northeasterly winds around 5 to 15 knots to become
light and variable this evening. Regional surface winds then
become southeasterly around 5 to 10 knots by early Tues
morning. However, a northerly to northeasterly lake breeze
around 5 to 10 knots should develop along and very near the
southern shore of Lake Erie, including at KERI, by early Tuesday
afternoon.

Outlook...VFR expected through Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern over
Lake Erie through Saturday. Predominantly northeasterly to
southeasterly winds are expected. Winds will tend to be onshore each
late morning through early evening due to lake breeze development.
Wind speeds of 5 to 10 knots and waves of 3 feet or less are
forecast through the whole period. The winds could be up to 15 knots
over the open basin of the lake during the afternoons each day. No
headlines are anticipated on the lake this week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Jaszka/Saunders
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Griffin