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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
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FXUS64 KEPZ 291729
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1129 AM MDT Mon May 29 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 203 AM MDT Mon May 29 2023
While dry conditions expected this week, there is good news that
high temperatures in the lowlands will remain under 100 degrees.
Wednesday, a passing system will bring breezy to windy conditions.
Dry and breezy conditions continues on Thursday/Friday. On
Saturday evening, a cool front moves through bringing the chance
for mountain thunderstorms through Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 AM MDT Mon May 29 2023
Crystal clear skies across the Borderland this morning as upper
level ridging build into the area as seen on GOES water vapor
imagery. This feature is bringing with it drier air, nixing rain
chances through Tuesday. Expect temperatures to rise under the
ridge, but lowland areas will stay under the triple digit mark
with added confidence by the NBM only giving a 1% chance of 100
degrees this week.

On Wednesday, an UL low will move from southern CA to the Four
Corners region. This pattern would normally provide a very windy
day. However, the main jet will remain south of the low, only
nudging into the FA. Therefore, winds will remain below wind
advisory criteria (at this time), but this will bring elevated
afternoon fire weather conditions. An attendant cold front will
arrive late Wednesday, which will drop lowland temperatures on
Thursday a handful of degrees to the upper 80s/lower 90s with
continued dry conditions.

On Friday, a shortwave passes through the area on Friday, with
models placing the region in a the `dry slot`. Our next shot at
rain won`t arrive until Saturday evening as an UL low becomes
established around southern CO, and a backdoor front begins to
push through. At the same time, weak UL ridging begins to
establish over the Borderland, with no real `trigger` for
convection aside from orographic lift. In addition, there is
model variability on the amount of moisture that makes it into
the region. Therefore, low- end rain chances Sat/Sun mostly remain
over our northern mountain ranges.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Mon May 29 2023

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. We will see a few
fair weather CU clouds this afternoon and evening, but over all
our ceilings will continue to be unlimited. Our surface winds
will come around to the southwest to west later this afternoon and
we may see a few hours of low end gusty winds. The gusty winds
will drop off around sunset and we will have light west winds
tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 203 AM MDT Mon May 29 2023
Breezy afternoons with minRH less than 15 percent will create
elevated fire weather danger through Tuesday. A passing system
will increase the wind causing near-critical conditions on
Wednesday. Breezy conditions will continue for Thursday and
Friday along with single digit RH values. Speeds look slightly
slower than Wednesday, at this time. Regardless, we will continue
to see elevated fire conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  96  68  96  70 /   0   0   0  10
Sierra Blanca            88  60  89  63 /   0   0   0  10
Las Cruces               95  63  94  64 /   0   0   0  10
Alamogordo               92  60  92  63 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               68  48  68  49 /   0   0   0  10
Truth or Consequences    91  61  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              83  55  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   92  58  91  58 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                88  56  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       93  66  92  68 /   0   0   0  10
Dell City                93  58  94  62 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             95  61  96  64 /   0   0   0  10
Loma Linda               87  61  86  62 /   0   0   0  10
Fabens                   95  63  96  66 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Teresa             91  62  91  63 /   0   0   0  10
White Sands HQ           93  68  92  68 /   0   0   0  10
Jornada Range            90  60  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    92  60  92  62 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 91  64  90  64 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                91  61  92  64 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  80  53  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                80  51  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 77  51  79  51 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  81  52  80  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                89  57  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                90  58  89  60 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             83  50  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   88  54  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    90  45  89  44 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               85  53  84  50 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  87  58  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   89  55  89  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  89  57  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           88  57  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               83  55  83  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...15-Brice
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
