Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 040932
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
332 AM CST Thu Mar 4 2021

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
Southerly lower level flow has returned along with increasing lower
level moisture. Stratus has developed along the Escarpment northwest
of San Antonio and will spread to areas mainly along the Escarpment
into the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande early this
morning. Patchy fog is also expected, and where the stratus is
slower to develop, patchy dense fog is possible. Due to the
shallowness of lower level moisture, the stratus and fog mixes out
by late morning, leaving a mostly sunny day. High temperatures will
warm a few degrees from yesterday to above seasonal normal levels.
Breezy southerly winds are expected this afternoon as the surface
pressure gradient tightens. Stratus redevelops tonight keeping low
temperatures well above seasonal normal levels.

On Friday, a Pacific front moves across our area in the morning to
early afternoon. Some models develop light QPF along and ahead of
it. While cannot rule out a few light rain showers east of I-35,
will keep mention out of forecast as chances are quite low due to
lower level flow becoming southwesterly and scouring out the deeper
moisture ahead of the front. The airmass dries significantly with
the passage of the front. Also, breezy, gusty northwesterly winds
develop due to a tight surface pressure gradient in its wake. This
downsloping flow results in much warmer, well above seasonal normal
high temperatures. The combination of breezy winds and low
humidities results in fire weather issues. See the Fire Weather
section below for details. A Canadian front moves into our area late
in the afternoon bringing a return to cooler temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Friday night the cold front will move away from the area and an upper
level ridge will build over Texas. Northerly winds behind the front
will bring cooler air to South Central Texas. High temperatures
Saturday will be around 15 degrees cooler than Friday. After a couple
of warm mornings, lows Sunday will be down to near normal in the 40s
and lower 50s. The upper ridge will dominate over Texas through the
weekend. At the surface, high pressure will move across North Texas
turning the winds to the east during the day Saturday and this will
continue Sunday. This will mean dry weather for the weekend. Monday
the low level flow will become southeasterly bringing warmer, moister
air to the region. Temperatures will warm during the first half of
the week with highs reaching the lower 80s by Wednesday. A cold front
will approach our CWA from the west Wednesday and this may provide
sufficient lift to produce isolated showers over the northeast, but
chances are very low and most places will stay dry.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected in
the wake of a cold frontal passage on Friday. Northwesterly winds of
15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph are expected. Afternoon
humidities in the 20s are expected most areas with some spots in the
teens across the Rio Grande Plains. The main threat area will be
across the Hill Country to Rio Grande Plains to along the
Escarpment. The greatest threat area where some spots may reach
critical fire weather levels for an hour or so will be along and
south of US Highway 90 and west of I-37 where the strongest winds
and lowest humidities will be found. However, a lack of significant
wetting rains and mostly cured fuels due to recent hard freezes are
found across most areas. Humidities will recover late afternoon into
evening as temperatures cool.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  54  79  51  64 /   0  -   -   -    0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  52  80  51  65 /   0  -   -   -    0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     76  54  82  51  67 /   0  -   -   -    0
Burnet Muni Airport            74  51  75  48  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           79  52  81  49  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  52  77  49  63 /   0  -    0  -    0
Hondo Muni Airport             77  53  82  48  67 /   0  -    0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  52  80  49  64 /   0  -   -   -    0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  53  79  51  66 /   0  10  -   -    0
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  55  80  51  64 /   0  -   -   -    0
Stinson Muni Airport           75  54  81  50  65 /   0  -   -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...04
Long-Term...05


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