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000
FXUS64 KHGX 062012
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
312 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Seeing scattered showers and thunderstorms across coastal areas
early this afternoon. This activity will gradually spread inland
during the rest of the aft. By the eve hours, only expect to see
some isolated activity left across central/northeast areas.

May see some patches of early morning fog again with the light winds
and recent rainfall. Will see mid/upper level ridging build in
from the southwest tomorrow and this will lead to more subsidence
over the area, leading to less precip coverage and warmer
temperatures. Will have a slight chc of rain in the aft tomorrow
with heating and inland max temps around 90.

Wood

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Will have a complex upper pattern to start the long term period
with NW 500 mb flow with SE TX initially downstream of a cyclonic
shear axis...axis of higher vorticity. By Friday this feature
shifts E of the area. Flow becomes more westerly by Saturday.

Although trends will be for gradually less coverage each day, cant
rule out thunderstorms on Thursday and maybe Friday for NE areas.
By the weekend see more of a cap develop with NW flow type
thunderstorms shifting to mainly E of the area. The bigger story
in the long term will be the heat. Along with the drying trend,
temps will be on the rise with upper 90s showing up in the model
blends by early next week. Will likely approach heat advisory
levels by Sunday and into next week with max heat indices up aoa
105 degrees F many areas. Always concerned about these early
season heat events as possible some less acclimated to the heat
stress this time of year.

Reilly

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Starting to see inland showers developing with heating. Expecting
to see scattered TSRA develop in the next couple of hours around
HOU, SGR, and LBX. Further inland, expecting isolated TSRA
21Z-00Z.

May see a few areas with MVFR ceilings late tonight and early
tomorrow. But, confidence is low on that, so am forecasting SCT
around 1500 for this late night strato cu. Expecting to see some
MVFR BR late tonight.

Less TSRA coverage is expected tomorrow, amd likely to be limited
to just the aft hours.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Expecting generally light winds and low seas through Friday with
fairly flat pressure field and wind directions driven by diurnal
cycle of land and sea breezes. Winds become southerly and
increase starting Saturday and continuing into next week as
pressure gradient tightens between low developing Srn Rockies and
high pressure ridge over the Plains. This will lead to a build up
in seas to more modest levels...2 to 4 feet...but expect winds
and seas to remain below advisory levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  68  90  70  93 /  10  20   0  10
Houston (IAH)  69  90  71  92 /  20  20  10  20
Galveston (GLS)  75  86  77  88 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wood
LONG TERM....Reilly
AVIATION...Wood
MARINE...Reilly