Text Products for AFD Issued by HNX

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

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FXUS66 KHNX 060746 CCA
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1245 AM PDT Tue Jun 6 2023


.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will impact Central California today until
Tuesday night, resulting in a chance of showers and a slight
chance of thunderstorms with a few strong storms possible. Cooler
than average temperatures will prevail through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue today, or through
early this evening. Some thunderstorms persist over southwestern
Kern County during the overnight hours, based on latest radar and
satellite imagery. Shortly after midnight, we even received a
report of large hail (about 1.50 inches in diameter, or ping-pong
ball size) with one of the strongest storms in Kern County. Today`s
highs will generally rise to the lower 80`s at the warmest locations
with chances at around 55 to 65 percent today and about 45 to 55
percent for Wednesday. Probabilities appear reasonable regarding
this cooler pattern over the next couple of days as the upper-level
low pressure system prevails over our area. Expect another round of
scattered showers and thunderstorms across Central California by
this afternoon. High resolution guidance shows the low will move
inland by Wednesday evening, and we will continue to experience
cooler temperatures. Showers and thunderstorms will form over much
of the mountain and desert areas on Wednesday.

A slight warming trend is in store for later this week before
another low pressure system arrives for the weekend. Temperatures
will be seasonably warm or slightly below average. This feature
provides another opportunity for cooler temperatures, and ensemble
guidance is in overall good agreement. Probabilities are a bit
lower (roughly 30 to 50 percent for lower 80`s to return to the
warmest spots for Saturday until Monday), which would be similar
to what we are expecting today and Wednesday. We expect a decrease
in shower and thunderstorm activity for Thursday and Friday, but
another uptick in convection may occur and once again spread
beyond the typical higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada, or at
least into the Kern County mountains and lower Sierra Nevada
foothills.

For early next week, temperatures will rise a bit as high
pressure gradually builds over the Eastern Pacific Ocean and along
the west coast. Generally, we anticipate seasonably warm
temperatures by this time next week. There is a low to moderate
chance that we could see highs reach the 90 degree mark in the
Central Valley and the desert portions of eastern Kern County
next Tuesday. Otherwise, we will keep chances of afternoon and
evening thunderstorms for the Sierra crest for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through at least the next 24 hours.
MVFR or lower conditions are likely in and near any thunderstorm
this afternoon and this evening. MFVR conditions are possible in
and near showers until 03Z Wednesday.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Public/Fire Wx/Aviation...BSO
Social Media..............BS

weather.gov/hanford
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
