Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 302322
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
422 PM PDT Fri Sep 30 2022


.UPDATE...Updated air quality issues section.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Above average temperatures will prevail and increase through the
weekend into next week. Dry conditions will also be prevalent into
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A ridge is currently sitting off the Pacific Coast as a trough is
digging into the Great Basin area. However, through the weekend
to Tuesday, the trough will start to slowly crawl towards the
Northern Plains. At the same time the trough is moving, the ridge
will move from the Pacific to the Great Basin and will intensify
as it moves east over the area. This building ridge will keep
moisture from coming into the area. Both the GEFS and European
model ensembles agree on the ridge in development but show it
would not be as strong as it might feel.

Temperatures over the next few days will be 4 to 7 degrees above
average for the start of October with temperatures increasing
gradually each day to about 6 to 10 degrees above average on
Thursday. Probabilistic models show Wednesday and Thursday as the
likeliest hottest day this upcoming week. Fresno and points south
currently have at least 65 percent probability of temperatures of
at least 90 degrees on Wednesday and at least 70 percent for the
whole San Joaquin Valley on Thursday. The probability of temperatures
of at least 95 degrees remain below 15 percent until Thursday
when it increases to between 15 and 30 percent chance of highs of
at least 95 degrees for most of the Valley.


&&


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across Central California for at
least the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Saturday October 1 2022... Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups in
Kern and Tulare Counties... and Sequoia National Park and Forest.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

JPK/BSO

weather.gov/hanford


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