Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 081040

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
640 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

Issued at 311 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

Increasing heat and humidity this weekend will be followed by
daily chances for showers and thunderstorms next week. Highs today
will reach the mid 80s, with the upper 80s to near 90 degrees on


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 311 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

Influence of dry/stable airmass on the western fringe of sfc high
pressure, with reservoir of higher theta-e locked up across the MS
Valley/Plains, will continue to provide dry conditions and low
humidity today. Weak southwest return flow may allow some higher
level clouds to work in today, though this shouldn`t hamper temps
with highs in the mid 80s.

Mid level moisture gradient does work east into the lower Great
Lakes later tonight into Sunday morning within lower amplitude
westerly flow aloft. Some increase in clouds and non-zero rain
chances will result, though primary corridor of moisture advection
remains wnw of the area with any elevated activity struggling to
get east into drier, more stable air. Some build in boundary layer
instability is then possible into Sunday afternoon as low levels
continue to moisten. This brings some potential for iso
convection, though capping concerns and nebulous forcing suggests
holding with a silent 10 PoP. Highs will likely make a run at 90
on Sunday otherwise, with peak PM indices into the mid 90s.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 311 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

Later Sunday night through Monday night will bring the potential for
a round or two of convection as the upstream reservoir of deeper
moisture folds in and convectively enhanced vorts track east in
advance of a cold front sagging in from the north. This remains a
complex scenario given the myriad of solutions regarding strength
and timing of remnant/weakening convective activity spilling in
Monday morning, and the potential for more vigorous re-development
later Monday afternoon/evening. Confidence is low but will
continue to carry a mid chance PoP with Monday humid (sfc
dewpoints low-mid 70s).

A rather typical August pattern then settles in for the remainder of
the week with the leftover frontal zone settling into our
southern zones, or possibly south-southwest of the area through at
least the middle of the week. Isolated to scattered showers and
storms, mainly tied to the aftn diurnal cycle, will likely
accompany the front. The result is periodic chances for
showers/storms and seasonable temps, best chances late Wednesday
through Friday as a slow moving mid level wave approaches from
the Mid MS Valley.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 638 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

High pressure ensconced over the southern Great Lakes over the
past few days will gradually shift southeast into the Smokies
by the end of the forecast period. Continued VFR conditions with
few to scattered high based diurnal cumulus expected, along with a
slight increase in southerly return flow.




SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel

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