Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 061711

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
111 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Issued at 450 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

There is a slight chance for rain showers today, mainly west of
Interstate 69 in the afternoon and tonight. Otherwise, expect dry
conditions through next Saturday under variable cloud cover. Rain
chances return for the weekend into early next week. Highs will be
in the 70s and low to mid 80s, warmest on Saturday.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 450 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Fairly quiet weather for the short term forecast, with the backdoor
cold front sinking slowly southward through the day. Today will be
mostly dry with a little bit of haze around, especially in the
morning. Held onto our low chance pops (could be sprinkles during
the day) for areas west of I 69, with the most favorable conditions
south of US 30 (especially near White County, IN) closer to 21z-06z.
Don`t think we`ll see enough instability for thunderstorms in our
area, so kept that out for now, but think there is just enough
moisture/instability (daytime heating in the afternoon) for a few
showers to pop. Dry conditions are expected elsewhere under partly
to mostly cloudy skies.

Highs today will be in the low to mid 70s near Lake Michigan, and
the upper 70s to low 80s inland. Lows will be in the 50s.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 450 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Wednesday into Saturday morning will be dry with partly to mostly
sunny skies thanks to surface high pressure and lacking moisture
advection. The high pressure system is centered over Upper MI
Wednesday afternoon and shifts southward into MN/WI/IL by Thursday,
then finally into southern IL/IN by Friday morning. There are a
couple of shortwaves rotating around the broad upper low over the NE
CONUS, which extends just to our west into IL, but don`t expect much
in the way of any precipitation as moisture is lacking. Highs
will be in the 70s and low 80s. Lows will be in the mid to upper
40s and 50s.

A moderate swim risk is looking more likely for beaches along the
Lake Michigan shoreline in Berrien County, MI and La Porte County,
IN for Wednesday and Thursday. N-NW winds should pick up to around
10 to 20 mph at times, with the lake breeze enhancing the flow
slightly. Waves look to build to 2 to 3 feet, and some stronger
currents are possible. Monitor the forecast for the latest details.

We may need a special weather statement for Wednesday-Thursday to
highlight the elevated fire danger, with winds gusting to around 15-
20 mph, temperatures in the 70s and low 80s, and minimum afternoon
humidities in the 20-30 percent range.

Finally, the best chances for rain will be this weekend as a sharp
east to west oriented trough stemming from the low over the NE CONUS
swings through the Great Lakes region. At the surface is a cold
front that once entering our CWA Saturday afternoon/evening will
interact with warm air/moisture advection from the southwest and
potentially develop into a surface low, which will slowly drift ESE
through Monday night. Have low-end pops on Saturday afternoon in the
north and west half, then increase to 40-55 percent Saturday night
into Sunday afternoon (by Sunday afternoon the higher chances are
generally along/east of Interstate 69, especially south of US 24.
Thunderstorms are possible. Thanks to the increased warm
air/moisture advection, highs Saturday will be in the low to mid 80s
(upper 70s near Lake MI). Lows will be in the 50s and low 60s.

Model guidance is still waffling (internally from run to
run and also in comparison to one another) regarding the overall
synoptic pattern beyond Sunday evening, so confidence in the
forecast from then until Tuesday is low. The GFS for example turns
the elongated trough into a closed low on Monday afternoon over
PA/WV, then follows it with a ridge over our CWA. This would end
precipitation by 6z Monday night, and keep us dry through Tuesday
night. The ECMWF forms the upper level low on Sunday afternoon over
Upper Michigan, and has it deepening over our CWA (with a
corresponding surface low) Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Given low
confidence I just maintained the 20-30 percent pops with isolated
thunderstorms during this period. Highs will be in the 70s and low
80s. Lows will be in the 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 111 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Short wave energy moving down in northwest flow aloft currently
generating area of showers moving into southern lake Michigan to
begin this TAF cycle. A couple of the HREF members have this
holding together as it passes through the area this
afternoon/evening despite very dry boundary/low will
include a tempo group for both sites. Upstream obs have VFR
ceilings where precip is occurring so do not anticipate much if
any impact at either site other than possible MVFR visibilities at
KSBN. Surface cold front pushing southward will have northerly
winds behind it prevailing through the period...backing from N/NW
to NE.





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