Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 061556

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
856 AM PDT Tue Jun 6 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
with the highest chance of showers and storms across northern NV.
Strong storms are possible today with the main threats being from
hail and wind. Stormy weather is expected to last through the rest
of the week and into next week.


.UPDATE...Updated afternoon high temperatures a few degrees lower
due to the chances for rain and thunderstorms in the afternoon,
plus the crowd cover. No other updates are planned.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 200 AM PDT Tue Jun 6 2023/

SHORT TERM...Today and Wednesday.

Today, a fairly active subtropical jet between 20 to 30 degrees
north is forecast to bring another low pressure system up along
the southern CA coast. This will cause dry air to surge from the
south to the north acting as a dry line feature across the silver
state. This feature will be the focal point for the thunderstorm
initiation with most likely onset time of thunder happening
between 1100 and 1300. For northeast and central Nevada the
forecast shows weak shear and weak upper level diffluence to
enhance thunderstorm structure and development over portions of
Elko, Northern Lander and Eureka, and Humboldt counties for a
(40-80%) chance of precipitation. There is a severe storm threat
(wind & hail) and a heavy rain threat with less than 10 percent
probability of potentially severe storms with localized flash
flooding in the afternoon and evening. For the past few events
funnel clouds have occurred with the stronger storms (most
recently SE of Wells on Monday), so this event should do the same
and produce funnel clouds. While the chance is remote (<1%) a
tornado could form if any of these funnels actually reaches the
ground. The areas in the drier air, northern Nye, southern White
Pine, and southern Lander, and Eureka counties, limited (0-15%)
and overall weaker storms are anticipated. As the dry air does
push northward through today expect thunderstorms to end from the
south to the north. This system will bring gusty winds across NV
with gusts in the 20s mph expected with gusts overall stronger in
central NV compared to northern NV.

Wednesday will see the weather system continue to push inland
which will continue to push the dry air northward to encompass
most of the areas southward of I-80. This will in large prevent
thunderstorm activity south of I-80. North of I-80 moisture will
still be present with thunderstorms expected (15-40%) to form
during the afternoon and last through the evening. While overall
dynamic are not as impressive for Wednesday strong to severe
thunderstorms can still occur (<5%) with better odds right along
the northern border. The threats will remain the same with strong
wind, hail, and even a funnel cloud possible.

Temperatures are remaining warm with highs in the 70s and 80s
expected for both days with Wednesday being slightly cooler

LONG TERM...Thursday through next Tuesday.

A drier air mass ushered in by a strong low pressure system in
southern California will limit shower and thunderstorms across
much of central Nevada although convection is still expected
mainly in far northern Nevada for Wednesday. The mid-level low
will move into southern Nevada Thursday allowing for widespread
convection across much of northwestern and northern Nevada. Active
weather including daily showers and thunderstorms will persist
through Saturday. A moderate to high forecast confidence remains
for another potent upper-low to move into the Desert Southwest
Sunday, with cluster analysis showing a more open but broad
troughing pattern emerging for early next week. Nonetheless,
widespread, potentially wetting rains are expected Sunday and
Monday with the highest probabilities of 0.10" or more of rain
across northern Nevada mainly north of I-80 in the 60-70% range.
The overall troughing across the region will promote persistent
active weather into Tuesday.

Winds will gradually increase through late week as the low
approaches the region. However, general winds will not be too
impactful although stronger outflows could produce some isolated
damaging wind gusts from the stronger thunderstorms day to day.

Temperatures will continue to slowly decline to below normal
levels by the weekend. Highs will generally be in the 70s Thursday
and Friday with some 60s by early next week. Lows will drop into
the 40s and 50s with primarily 40s by the weekend.

AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected for all terminals this
evening. VCSH at KTPH through the evening and will taper off.
Winds will be light for all terminals. Tomorrow, more active
patterns return with the probability (30-50%) scattered/isolated
thunderstorms could affect flight conditions at times for all
terminals except KTPH. Gusty winds expected at all terminals as
high as 20 kts to 27 kts, with the exception of KEKO.

HYDROLOGY...River and stream flows remain high and swift as
snowpack continues to melt from central and northern Nevada
mountains. The active weather pattern persists, with afternoon
and evening rain showers and thunderstorms. Probabilities remain
low that any given thunderstorm will cause increased hydrologic
impacts. Smaller creeks like Lamoille will see diurnal
fluctuations, but larger rivers that are slower responding will
continue to run high. The swollen stream from snowmelt water can
be dangerous as multiple people have died in them out West so use
caution when on streams fresh from the mountains.


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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