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000
FXUS64 KAMA 241139
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
639 AM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

.AVIATION...12z TAF Cycle...

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across the
Panhandles, yet confidence is too low to include mention in TAF at
this time.

Ward

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 309 AM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021/

SHORT TERM...Today through Tomorrow Night...

Synopsis: Temperatures rising into the 90s may be enough to
generate isolated thunderstorms today, with isolated to scattered
activity tomorrow as subtropical moisture increases. Gusty winds
would be the main threat with any storms.

Details: An upper level low continues its trek westward in central
NM as high pressure shifts more over portions of Texas. A subtle
disturbance on the backside of the low generated a few storms near
Collingsworth county before 0700z, but all that is left now is an
outflow boundary which just moved northwest through KAMA. Another
outflow boundary from earlier activity was moving into the
northern zones. These boundaries could generate additional storms
this afternoon if they remain in the area, yet there is a wide
range of model output with regard to instability and low level
moisture. Some models (RAP, HRRR, GFS) don`t produce enough
instability to support storms today as 500mb temperatures hover
around -4 degrees C and surface dews mix down into the 40s and
50s. Other models (NAM, NAMNest, TTUWRF) are more aggressive with
moisture and cooler temperatures aloft, resulting in isolated storm
initiation around peak heating today. Will maintain mainly
isolated mention for the area through this evening. Any storms
should remain sub severe, but some gusty winds are possible given
high storm bases and DCAPE around 1200 J/kg.

The 500mb high moves more over West Texas on Sunday, but medium
term guidance suggest there will be weaknesses in the high as
weak westerly flow sets up over the Panhandles. Guidance suggest
that isolated to scattered storms will develop as temperatures
rise into the mid 90s. A subtle disturbance aloft may cool mid
level temperatures enough in the late afternoon and evening to
support. The flow will be very weak with almost no shear and
marginal instability. Any storms would be single cell cold pool
driven storms with a low risk for gusty winds.

Ward

LONG TERM...Monday through Friday night...

High pressure is to continue building over the area going into
Monday leading warmer temperatures in the extended period.
Monsoonal moisture with some disturbances in the ridge aloft will
bring a large coverage of 30 PoPs to the FA Monday evening. With
very light winds aloft, the shear will be be weak and CAPE values
are looking to be modest. Wide spread severe storms are not
expected on Monday. However, with warmer temperatures in the mid
90s and Td`s in the 50s to lower 60s, inverted V soundings support
the possibility of some strong wind gusts from any storms that
develop.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible again on Tuesday in the
far western FA up against New Mexico. Beyond that, the high
pressure centers more over the central Rockies into the Great
Plains. This will leave the FA under more easterly winds on the
southern periphery of the high pressure aloft which ultimately
brings in drier air limiting thunderstorm chances in the latter
part of the period.

Afternoon highs will continue to be in the mid to upper 90s across
the area going into the latter part of the week. Forecasted highs
given by the NBM keep Amarillo below 100 through the rest of
July. However, with the temperatures reaching 95 or higher, there
is always a chance for conditions to over achieve from what model
guidance has. If Amarillo can stay below 100 through the end of
the month it will be the first July in 5 years for Amarillo where
the high for all 31 days did not make it to 100 or above. The last
time this happened was in 2015. Thunderstorm chances do look to
possibly return beyond the 7 Day period around the 31st and going
into August 1st.

Hoffeditz

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

7/36