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000
FXUS64 KAMA 221125
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
625 AM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Cycle

Few to scattered mid or high level clouds will result in VFR
conditions at all three TAF sites through 12Z Friday. Southerly
winds 5 to 15 knots will increase to around 10 to 20 knots with
gusts near 25 knots after 14Z to 16Z today and then diminish again
to 5 to 15 knots after 00Z Friday.

Schneider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 217 AM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021/

SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night

Closed upper low over the western portions of the Edwards Plateau
today will move across the Trans Pecos region later today through
tonight and Friday. Upper high over the southern Rockies and
southwestern states will maintain a dry northeasterly to easterly
upper flow across the Panhandles today through Friday. Convection
expected to remain well west and south of the forecast area. Upper
low expected to move further west Friday and Friday night across
far west Texas and southern New Mexico. The upper high is forecast
to remain over Colorado back into Nevada and California. Dry
conditions are expected today through Friday night across the
Panhandles.

Surface trough to the lee of the southern Rockies today through
Friday night may deepen slightly today and Friday resulting in
tightening of the pressure gradient which will result in some
gusty southerly winds mainly mid to late morning and continuing
through the afternoon hours today and again Friday. A gradual
warming trend expected today through Friday with highs reaching
the 90s across most of the Panhandles Friday.

Schneider

LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...

By Saturday, the 500mb closed low will be entering the southwest
CONUS south of the high that originally resided there. This will
put the flow aloft as more south southwesterly for the weekend
with the chance for Pacific moisture aloft to return to the
Panhandles. Meanwhile, a high over the Gulf of Mexico will begin
to move north and soon enough merge with the high over Utah. This
new ridge will continue to build between the Colorado Rockies and
Central Plains below meridional flow across the northern
CONUS/Canada into the middle of next week. This will put the flow
back to light and variable starting early next week, which will
cut off the moisture supply aloft.

Precipitation chances return for the weekend, but continue to
remain low due to minimal moisture advection with lack of
dynamical forcing and instability. A surface trough will setup
Saturday across eastern New Mexico with the best chance for
precipitation across the western Panhandles if storms can survive
long enough. The overall best shot for precipitation remains to
be on Sunday with more widespread chances across the Panhandles as
a surface trough sets up more over the forecast area. However,
there is some concern that if the upper low moves farther west
faster then it may lower these precipitation chances.

Going into next week, the chances for precipitation diminishes
with continued warm temperatures in the 90s and approaching triple
digits across portions of the eastern Panhandles.

Rutt

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

11/23