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000
FXUS64 KAMA 220517
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1217 AM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions at all three TAF sites with only some mainly few to
scattered high level clouds through the TAF forecast period and
perhaps a few high based low level clouds in the afternoon. Mainly
southerly winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to around 10 to 20 knots
with some gusts near 25 knots after 14Z to 16Z Thursday and then
diminishing again to around 10 to 15 knots after 21Z Thursday and
00Z Friday.

Schneider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 628 PM CDT Wed Jul 21 2021/

AVIATION...
00Z Issuance...All sites are expected to remain VFR through the
period. Southerly winds will be easing overnight and then ramping
back up with gusts around 20-25kts tomorrow.

Beat

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 149 PM CDT Wed Jul 21 2021/

SHORT TERM...This afternoon through Tomorrow Night...

Throughout the short term forecast period, precipitation chances
continue to remain very low. Attenuating northeasterly flow will
limit any precipitation chances from organizing, in-conjunction
with the main monsoon flow further to the west in AZ/NM. Along
with the ridge in the Four Corners Region, a closed H500 low will
traverse west through south Texas keeping our H500 northeasterly
flow in tact through tomorrow. This should keep our weather
pattern dry. Especially since NE flow aloft will be a bit stronger
tomorrow. High temperatures tomorrow will be close to average, a
bit below with highs ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s
across the Panhandles.

Meccariello

LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...

At the beginning of the long term, sinusoidal flow continues across
the the northern tier of North America, with a H500 ridge axis
centered over the Central and Northern Plains. This upper level flow
will continue to keep the Panhandles in a drier and warmer airmass
through Friday. At the same time, a H500 low pressure system
continues to retrograde towards the west and by Saturday, will be
far enough to our west to allow Pacific moisture to advect into the
area. In addition to the moisture advection, mild disturbances
around the H500 low could trigger thunderstorms on Saturday and
Sunday. Thunderstorms could form off the higher terrain in New
Mexico and move into the area on both days. Saturday favors the
western CWA for precipitation, whereas Sunday the entire area has a
chance for showers and storms which could linger into Monday. The
chances for showers and storms are low at this time, with most areas
having a 20% chance on either day this weekend through Monday.

The H500 low continues to retrograde west through the rest of the
extended and loses its influence on the Southern Plains. The upper
level ridge continues to build across the central US, which will cut
off any moisture advection to the area and the warming trend in
temperatures will continue.

Muscha/Guerrero

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

11/23