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000
FXUS64 KAMA 211849
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
149 PM CDT Wed Jul 21 2021

.SHORT TERM...This afternoon through Tomorrow Night...

Throughout the short term forecast period, precipitation chances
continue to remain very low. Attenuating northeasterly flow will
limit any precipitation chances from organizing, in-conjunction
with the main monsoon flow further to the west in AZ/NM. Along
with the ridge in the Four Corners Region, a closed H500 low will
traverse west through south Texas keeping our H500 northeasterly
flow in tact through tomorrow. This should keep our weather
pattern dry. Especially since NE flow aloft will be a bit stronger
tomorrow. High temperatures tomorrow will be close to average, a
bit below with highs ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s
across the Panhandles.

Meccariello

&&

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...

At the beginning of the long term, sinusoidal flow continues across
the the northern tier of North America, with a H500 ridge axis
centered over the Central and Northern Plains. This upper level flow
will continue to keep the Panhandles in a drier and warmer airmass
through Friday. At the same time, a H500 low pressure system
continues to retrograde towards the west and by Saturday, will be
far enough to our west to allow Pacific moisture to advect into the
area. In addition to the moisture advection, mild disturbances
around the H500 low could trigger thunderstorms on Saturday and
Sunday. Thunderstorms could form off the higher terrain in New
Mexico and move into the area on both days. Saturday favors the
western CWA for precipitation, whereas Sunday the entire area has a
chance for showers and storms which could linger into Monday. The
chances for showers and storms are low at this time, with most areas
having a 20% chance on either day this weekend through Monday.

The H500 low continues to retrograde west through the rest of the
extended and loses its influence on the Southern Plains. The upper
level ridge continues to build across the central US, which will cut
off any moisture advection to the area and the warming trend in
temperatures will continue.

Muscha/Guerrero

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                64  89  66  91  67 /   0   0   0   0   5
Beaver OK                  65  94  68  96  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              63  90  64  92  63 /   0   5   0   0   5
Borger TX                  68  94  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              65  91  67  93  67 /   0   0   0   0   5
Canyon TX                  63  87  66  89  66 /   0   0   0   0   5
Clarendon TX               65  88  66  91  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 61  89  62  90  62 /   0   5   0   0   5
Guymon OK                  64  93  66  96  66 /   5   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                63  88  65  90  65 /   0   0   0   0   5
Lipscomb TX                65  92  67  94  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   64  90  66  92  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                63  90  66  92  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              65  91  67  93  69 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

29/24