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000
FXUS64 KAMA 211116
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
616 AM CDT Wed Jul 21 2021

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Cycle

Just some high level clouds at all three TAF sites through 12Z
Thursday, therefore VFR conditions will prevail. Southerly winds 5
to 15 knots are expected at all three TAF sites.

Schneider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 300 AM CDT Wed Jul 21 2021/

SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night

Upper high over the Four Corners region today will allow for a
dry northeasterly flow aloft across the Panhandles. Upper low over
central Texas later today and tonight will track slowly west into
west Texas Thursday and southwest Texas Thursday night. A
continued dry northeasterly flow aloft will prevail over the
Panhandles tonight through Thursday night.

Surface low over the central Rockies today through Thursday with a
surface trough extending southwest across the southern Rockies
will allow for a warmer southerly surface flow today through
Thursday night. The surface trough should deepen Thursday and
allow for the pressure gradient to tighten resulting in breezy
southerly winds. Convection expected to remain well west of the
Panhandles from the central Rockies back down into the
southwestern states and southern Rockies.

Schneider

LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...

By Friday the upper low will be over West Texas with the moisture
kept out of the Panhandles. The 500mb low will continue to
retrograde west through the weekend, which will open the door for
precipitation chances returning to the forecast area as the
Pacific moisture wraps around the east side of the low over
eastern New Mexico and West Texas. As the low continues to push
westward south of the upper ridge and into the Pacific by early
next week, the high will begin to build further east into the
Central Plains by mid-week.

The best chances of precipitation this weekend will be in the
western Panhandles with showers an storms coming in from eastern
New Mexico. Sunday the chance for precipitation becomes more
widespread with the low in the best location for moisture
advection into the forecast area. However, the chances still
remain low with almost a 20 percent chance across the entire
Panhandles.

Surface winds will remain out of the south southwest with highs
remaining warm and near normal in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Low
temperatures will be mild and near normal in the mid 60s to lower
70s.

Rutt

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

11/23