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000
FXUS64 KAMA 202254
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
554 PM CDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.AVIATION...
00Z Issuance...VFR conditions are expected for all sites through
the next 24 hours. Fog and low clouds aren`t looking as likely
tonight so have left them out. Winds will be southerly and
increase a bit for the day tomorrow.

Beat

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 235 PM CDT Tue Jul 20 2021/

SHORT TERM...This Afternoon through Tomorrow Night...

Mainly quiet weather is expected through tomorrow night with mild
conditions for mid July. There is a slim chance for a shower or
storm in the far western Texas Panhandle this afternoon, but any
activity should be brief and isolated.

An H500 positive tilt ridge axis is currently situated from AZ
to SD as a weak area of low pressure over MS retrogrades towards
TX. This has resulted in northeast flow aloft, which is pushing
the monsoonal moisture west into NM. As of 18z this afternoon, enough
moisture remains across the far western zones such that any subtle
disturbance or surface convergence along a weak boundary could
generate a brief shower or thunderstorm. There is also a 250mb jet
with some modest divergence aloft which is contributing to speed
shear. The latest radar returns indicated that a storm formed
around 17z near KFDX (in New Mexico). With around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE
and 35 knots of effective shear due to modestly long hodographs,
the updraft quickly split. Weak lapse rates in the mid levels are
likely keeping the storms in New Mexico from becoming severe
(although it could get close). Further east in the western Texas
Panhandle, the lower level moisture is mixing out more quickly
resulting in a stronger cap, so any shower or storm should be
brief at best. There were a few small radar echoes showing up in
western Deaf Smith and Hartley County that will be watched. Will
maintain at 10 percent PoP through 00z, after which the cap should
be too strong for any storms to persist.

Dry air aloft will continue to invade through tomorrow which
should completely cutoff rain chances. The retrograding 500mb low
is progged to move over North Texas by 18z, with high pressure
remaining over the Four Corners. Other than lower chance for
storms, tomorrow should be very similar to today with highs in the
mid 80s being common.

Ward

LONG TERM (Thursday through Monday)...

Overview:
Overall, the long term remains on the quiet side
regarding impactful weather. We will have precipitation close to
the forecast area--if not across the outskirts of our area--
beginning Saturday, but the better chances for precipitation will
be Sunday and Monday. However, even those chances are low, but the
coverage of those low chance PoPs cover a larger area Sunday
(entire area). Monday is mostly refined to western portions of the
area. We are not expecting widespread severe weather at this time
given the weak parameters, but as with any thunderstorm in the
Panhandles we could have a few rogue strong to severe storms.

Further Details:
By Thursday, a positively tilted H5 high will be located over the
Four Corners region, and this will be its home--so to speak--for
the next several days. This will place the Panhandles in mainly
northeast flow aloft. Interesting enough we have an H5 low
retrograding west over the next few day, and this will change the
orientation of the H5 high to some degree by Friday. We are
lacking moisture through the column during this time, and we are
expecting a lot of sunshine the next several days. Its not until
Saturday we start to see our precipitation chances increase
slightly across the west thanks to the retrograding upper low. We
may end up precipitation free Saturday, but the low will at least
set the stage for precipitation chances to increase by Sunday
across the entire area. Of course, this is several days out, and
the details may change a little, but this is likely our best
chance for precipitation in the forecast. The H5 starts to move
over the Panhandles early next week, and we could be looking at
quite a while without precipitation chances. That is outside of
this forecast "package", but it`s worth noting that we may be
looking at a dry/warm end to July and at least through the start
of August.

Guerrero

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

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