National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KAMA 201131
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
631 AM CDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.AVIATION...
12z TAF Issuance...Some mist and fog around DHT is causing
visibility to hover between VFR and MVFR conditions this morning.
Conditions should clear as the sun rises with VFR conditions expected
through the rest of the period at all three TAF sites. Winds will
be out of the east southeast around 5 to 10 knots.

Rutt

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 309 AM CDT Tue Jul 20 2021/

SHORT TERM...Today through Tomorrow Night...

The 00z sounding from Amarillo last night shows the increased dry
air throughout the mid and upper atmosphere. Mid-level water vapor
satellite imagery and RAP 500mb heights reveals the large swath of
dry air aloft advecting into the Southern Plains around the
westward edge of a closed low centered over western Tennessee.
The upper high remains over the Rockies with northeasterly flow
aloft for the Panhandles. The upper low will continue to cut off
from the trough over the Mid-Atlantic today and then begin to
retrograde westward over Texas tomorrow. This leaves the
Panhandles under a continued dry and warmer northeasterly air
mass aloft along with the low level monsoonal moisture in
conjunction with the high remaining west of the forecast area.

This leaves little to no chances for precipitation across West
Texas through tomorrow night. Surface winds will remain from the
east southeast today with highs remaining below normal in the mid
to upper 80s. By tomorrow, surface winds will begin to turn more to
the south with temperatures warming a few degrees higher as highs
get into the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Rutt

LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...

Closed upper low over West Texas Thursday with an upper high over
the Four Corners region will allow for subsidence across the
Panhandles late this week. As the closed upper low ejects west
over the southern Rockies Friday and the southwestern states
Saturday, the upper high will build north of the Panhandles across
the Great Basin region across the central Rockies and the central
Plains states. Convection should remain to the west and south of
the forecast area Friday into Saturday. The main upper high
establishes itself over the southern Plains states Sunday and then
across the central Plains states into the southeastern states
early next week. Convection may potentially develop mainly across
the western half or third of the Panhandles Sunday afternoon and
evening, otherwise dry conditions will continue Thursday through
Monday.

Surface trough to the lee of the Rockies Thursday through the
weekend across eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico expected to
deepen and the surface pressure gradient tightens. Breezy to
possibly windy conditions Thursday into the weekend with gusty south
or downsloping southwest winds. After just a couple of more days
of slightly below normal temperatures today and Wednesday, near
or above normal temperatures expected Thursday through Monday.

Schneider

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

23/11