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000
FXUS64 KAMA 200334
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1034 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021

.AVIATION...06Z TAF...
Light south to southeasterly winds expected, generally less than
10 kts for all three terminals. Overall a nice TAF period with
VFR conditions to prevail.

Hoffeditz

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 612 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021/

AVIATION...00Z TAF...
VFR conditions expected to prevail through the 00Z TAF period.
Winds will be east to southeast generally below 12 kts. Few clouds
will remain through the period, mostly above 10kt feet.

Hoffeditz

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 218 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021/

SHORT TERM...This afternoon through Tuesday night...

Below average temperatures continue through Tuesday, with highs
expected to be in the 80s. There is a chance for showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Chances for storms are
low as they will be quite isolated if they do form today.

The H500 ridge is currently positioned over the Rockies and
Central/Northern Plains this afternoon, keeping the area under
northerly flow today. A weak area of low pressure is located over
the eastern US, which is attempting to retrograde into the
Southern Plains over the next couple of days. This will promote
northeast flow aloft. A shortwave embedded in the upper level
flow is projected to move across the Southern Plains this
afternoon and overnight. This disturbance may provide enough lift
to generate a few thunderstorms. If thunderstorms do form, they
are expected to be isolated and short lived, as warmer and drier
air in the mid levels begins to push into the area from the east.
Some small hail and gusty winds are possible with thunderstorms
today, as modest MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/KG) and shear (20-30 kts)
will be available before sunset. Severe weather is not expected.

The trough and upper level disturbance continue to push south through
Tuesday morning. A lingering shower or storm may continue in the
west and southwest through the morning, as the disturbance exits
the area. The ridge aloft begins to become positively tilted and
turns the flow aloft to a more northeasterly component tomorrow.
The warmer and drier air will also stick around and push further
west in the mid levels, which will likely prevent any
precipitation from occurring on Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Muscha/Ward

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Sunday)...

Overall, a rather quiet forecast in terms of hazardous weather. We
are precipitation-free through nearly the entire week, and its
not until Sunday we see our precipitation chances return to the
forecast.

On Wednesday, the H5 high becomes positively tilted and flow
becomes northeasterly. We stay in this pattern for several days
as the H5 high sits over the Four Corners region. Taking a look at
1000mb-500mb, the RH through the mid-levels looks dismal, but
there is some moisture aloft that could bring high clouds into the
area at least a few days. However, there will be lots of sunshine
during this stretch. High temperatures start off below normal,
albeit only ~5 degrees below normal here and there. By Friday, and
through the weekend, we are back right around normal for high
temperatures. Otherwise, not a whole lot to talk about during this
stretch until Sunday when we finally get some precipitation
chances back in the forecast, but those chances are only around
20-25 percent.

Guerrero

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

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