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000
FXUS64 KAMA 191918
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
218 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021

.SHORT TERM...This afternoon through Tuesday night...

Below average temperatures continue through Tuesday, with highs
expected to be in the 80s. There is a chance for showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Chances for storms are
low as they will be quite isolated if they do form today.

The H500 ridge is currently positioned over the Rockies and
Central/Northern Plains this afternoon, keeping the area under
northerly flow today. A weak area of low pressure is located over
the eastern US, which is attempting to retrograde into the
Southern Plains over the next couple of days. This will promote
northeast flow aloft. A shortwave embedded in the upper level
flow is projected to move across the Southern Plains this
afternoon and overnight. This disturbance may provide enough lift
to generate a few thunderstorms. If thunderstorms do form, they
are expected to be isolated and short lived, as warmer and drier
air in the mid levels begins to push into the area from the east.
Some small hail and gusty winds are possible with thunderstorms
today, as modest MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/KG) and shear (20-30 kts)
will be available before sunset. Severe weather is not expected.

The trough and upper level disturbance continue to push south through
Tuesday morning. A lingering shower or storm may continue in the
west and southwest through the morning, as the disturbance exits
the area. The ridge aloft begins to become positively tilted and
turns the flow aloft to a more northeasterly component tomorrow.
The warmer and drier air will also stick around and push further
west in the mid levels, which will likely prevent any
precipitation from occurring on Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Muscha/Ward

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Sunday)...

Overall, a rather quiet forecast in terms of hazardous weather. We
are precipitation-free through nearly the entire week, and its
not until Sunday we see our precipitation chances return to the
forecast.

On Wednesday, the H5 high becomes positively tilted and flow
becomes northeasterly. We stay in this pattern for several days
as the H5 high sits over the Four Corners region. Taking a look at
1000mb-500mb, the RH through the mid-levels looks dismal, but
there is some moisture aloft that could bring high clouds into the
area at least a few days. However, there will be lots of sunshine
during this stretch. High temperatures start off below normal,
albeit only ~5 degrees below normal here and there. By Friday, and
through the weekend, we are back right around normal for high
temperatures. Otherwise, not a whole lot to talk about during this
stretch until Sunday when we finally get some precipitation
chances back in the forecast, but those chances are only around
20-25 percent.

Guerrero

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                64  84  61  85  64 /  10  10   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  61  87  62  90  65 /  10   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              61  85  60  87  62 /  10   5   0   0   0
Borger TX                  66  89  64  91  68 /  20   5   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              65  86  63  88  65 /  10  10   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  64  83  60  85  63 /  10  10   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               64  83  62  85  64 /  10   5   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 60  84  59  86  61 /  10   5   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  61  87  60  90  64 /  10   5   0   0   0
Hereford TX                64  84  61  86  63 /  20  20   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                61  86  61  88  65 /  20   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   62  85  61  86  64 /  20   5   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                62  85  62  87  64 /  20   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              64  86  64  87  65 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$