National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KAMA 190858
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
358 AM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tomorrow Night...

The chance for thunderstorms continues today across much of the
Panhandles. The upper high remains centered over western Colorado
with northerly flow aloft for the forecast area. A few weak
disturbances are present in the flow aloft, along with weak 20-30
knot winds around 500mb. Storms from yesterday have left some
lingering outflow boundaries, which will be the key areas for
showers and thunderstorms later this morning and into the
afternoon hours. A weak backdoor cold front will bring northeast
to easterly surface winds with slightly cooler temperatures as
highs will remain in the 80s. The front will also provide an
additional boundary for storms to intensify along. Models are
having a hard time initiating any sort of convection
today, so uncertainty remains in the location and timing of
storms due to their appearance relying heavily on lingering
surface boundaries. If a storm or two forms, the main threats will
be gusty winds and hail. A severe storm or two cannot be ruled
out as MLCAPE values are around 500-1500 J/kg and 0-6km shear of
20-30 knots. DCAPE values are around 1000-2000 J/kg, with a
potential for some strong to severe wind gusts with collapsing
storms. Storm motion will similarly to yesterday be to the south
at around 20-30 mph.

By tomorrow, the chance for storms and any sort of precipitation
dwindles as the upper high begins to take on a positive tilt and
the flow aloft becomes northeasterly. Surface winds will remain
southeasterly through the day, which will help to keep
temperatures once again in the 80s and below normal.

Rutt

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...

Upper high over the Four Corners region and a closed upper low
near the Ark-La-Tex region on Wednesday will allow for a
northeasterly upper flow across the Panhandles along with
subsidence. As the closed upper low shifts west across central and
west Texas Wednesday night through Thursday night into Friday,
the upper high shifts north across the central Rockies. A
continuation of a dry northeasterly flow aloft across the
Panhandles with any convection remaining well south and west of
the forecast area. The closed upper low then shifts further west
across far West Texas and southern New Mexico over the upcoming
weekend. Any convection this upcoming weekend will be confined to
the far northwest or west portions of the forecast area.

Surface high builds south and west into the Panhandles Wednesday
before exiting east away from the forecast area Wednesday night
into Thursday. Surface low pressure develops to the lee of the
Rockies Wednesday night and Thursday across eastern Colorado and
eastern New Mexico. Surface low expected to develop over Colorado
Friday with surface trough extending into New Mexico. Cold front
to push south and east into the central Plains states and central
Rockies this weekend which should remain quasi-stationary across
this area Saturday and Sunday. Warmer and dry conditions are
expected Thursday through Sunday with temperatures near or
slightly above normal.

Schneider

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                85  64  84  61  86 /  20  10   5   0   0
Beaver OK                  87  62  86  62  89 /  20   5   0   0   0
Boise City OK              88  61  86  61  89 /  20   5   5   0   0
Borger TX                  90  67  89  65  91 /  20   5   5   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              88  66  86  63  89 /  20  10   5   0   0
Canyon TX                  85  64  83  60  84 /  20  10   5   0   0
Clarendon TX               85  65  83  63  85 /  20  10   5   0   0
Dalhart TX                 86  61  84  59  87 /  20  10   5   0   0
Guymon OK                  88  63  87  61  90 /  10   5   0   0   0
Hereford TX                87  64  84  61  86 /  20  20  10   0   0
Lipscomb TX                86  62  86  62  88 /  20   5   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   86  63  84  62  87 /  20   5   5   0   0
Shamrock TX                86  63  84  62  87 /  20   5   0   0   0
Wellington TX              86  65  86  64  88 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for the following
     zones: Dallam...Hartley...Moore...Sherman.

OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for the following
     zones: Cimarron...Texas.

&&

$$

23/11