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000
FXUS64 KAMA 171917
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
217 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

.SHORT TERM (Today through tomorrow night)...

Another couple rounds of showers/thunderstorms are forecast for
the short term. These typical summertime showers/thunderstorms
will be scattered in nature and hard to pinpoint, but generally
speaking we are not expecting widespread severe weather. We can
however get a couple rogue thunderstorms capable of producing an
isolated severe wind gust around 60 mph, and of course lightning
is a threat with any thunderstorm. Additionally, isolated
flooding may occur if a thunderstorm develops over an urban area.

High pressure will continue to build into the Four Corners region
today/tonight. This will continue our northwest flow pattern
aloft, but it becomes more northerly tomorrow as the high pushes
north of the Four Corners region into a north-to-south elongated
H5 high. We still keep the moist atmosphere in place with the
tropical airmass and high precipitable water values. In typical
summertime fashion, our mean flow is rather weak with little
shear. Thunderstorms are going to be very pulsy and experience
very slow storm motion as updrafts struggle to maintain.

For today, the northwest flow and embedded impulses will make for
our better chances of more widespread rainfall across the
Panhandles. As we reach convective temperatures later today, look
for scattered pop-up thunderstorms to form across the north and
northwest and even off the higher terrain across eastern NM,
eventually pushing east and south through the evening. Storms will
exhibit slow motion, so any storms that form over urban areas
will have a chance for flooding given the high PWATs. Early on,
with the inverted-v soundings anticipated, we could have
evaporative cooling processes created damaging wind gusts as
storms collapse. There are pockets of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, so we
could have hail develop, but the weak shear will not allow for
strong updrafts, so we could have more of an accumulating hail
threat with small stones not quite getting to severe criteria of
1.0"+ in diameter. So, main threats today will be localized
flooding and damaging wind gusts.

For tomorrow, there is a lot of uncertainty and we could end up
drier than what we have forecast. The atmosphere may work itself
over through the overnight period tonight, and make for
unfavorable conditions for storms tomorrow. The NAM Nest has been
performing well lately with these summertime thunderstorms, and it
keeps us mostly dry for tomorrow. Of course, this is just one
output, as the National Blend of Models paints 30-40 percent
across most of the area. If we end up with mostly subsidence
aloft and the absence of any outflow boundaries to work with, we
could be over forecasting PoPs for tomorrow. A lot will depend on
today/tonight, but with that said we are looking at a very similar
story for any showers/thunderstorms that develop regarding weak
shear, slow storm movement, and the tropical airmass. Threats will
be similar with damaging wind gusts and localized flooding as the
main impacts. Confidence for precipitation timing and coverage is
low at this time given the uncertainty.

Guerrero

&&

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...

The beginning of the long term will continue the pattern of below
average temperatures and chances for storms. Looking towards
later in the week, a return to near normal temperatures is
expected along with drier conditions.

An upper level ridge continues to build across the western CONUS
on Monday, keeping the area under northerly flow aloft. A H500
shortwave beginning across the Northern Plains, is forecast to
move south across the Southern Plains on Monday afternoon through
the evening. This shortwave will likely support initiation of
thunderstorms on Monday evening across the area. The thunderstorms
may continue into Tuesday, with a weak upper level low pressure
system attempting to undercut the ridge over northern Texas. If
there are storms on Tuesday, they likely will be confined to the
southern Texas Panhandle. Upper level support will continue to be
weak, so organized severe weather is not expected at this time.

The ridge with associated high pressure is expected to move
slowly towards the east through the extended period, with the
center of high pressure mainly across the Central Plains. By
Friday, the ridge is forecast to expand across the Southern
Plains, which will lead to increasing high temperatures and
continued dry conditions through the end of the period.

Muscha/Ward

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                68  89  68  87  65 /  50  30  50  30  40
Beaver OK                  69  94  67  90  65 /  20  30  50  30  20
Boise City OK              64  90  63  88  61 /  40  40  40  20  20
Borger TX                  72  95  70  91  68 /  40  30  50  30  30
Boys Ranch TX              69  90  68  89  66 /  50  30  50  20  30
Canyon TX                  68  88  67  86  65 /  40  30  50  30  40
Clarendon TX               69  90  69  87  66 /  30  20  40  40  40
Dalhart TX                 64  89  62  88  61 /  50  40  50  20  30
Guymon OK                  67  92  65  89  64 /  20  30  40  20  20
Hereford TX                68  89  67  88  65 /  50  30  50  30  40
Lipscomb TX                69  94  68  90  66 /  20  30  50  40  20
Pampa TX                   69  91  68  87  65 /  40  30  50  40  30
Shamrock TX                69  93  69  88  66 /  20  20  40  40  40
Wellington TX              70  93  70  90  67 /  20  20  40  40  40

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

24/5