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000
FXUS64 KAMA 231128
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
628 AM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021

.AVIATION...12z TAF Cycle...

VFR conditions are expected with mostly clear skies. South to
southwest winds around 10 to 15 knots will become more
southeasterly this evening. A few gusts near 20 knot are possible
this afternoon.

Ward

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 313 AM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021/

SHORT TERM...Today through Tomorrow Night...

Synopsis: While a very isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible
tomorrow, chances are only about 20% at best. Otherwise, expect
highs to break into the low 90s for a lot of the area today, with
mid 90s being more common tomorrow.

Details: Two areas of high pressure are present in the latest
analysis, one over the Desert Southwest and one over the Gulf of
Mexico. Between these two upper level features is a retrograding
low which is near KMAF based on the latest water vapor imagery.
This low is expected to move into west central NM by tonight. If
this low happens to track further north than expected, it could
spark a shower or storm in the southern TX Panhandle this
afternoon. The 00z KMAF sounding advertised 500mb temperatures
around -6.8 degrees C with some instability while KAMA came in at
a balmy -3.1 degrees C. Height falls will occur today as the low
moves up into western NM, but the question is will the mid level
temperatures cool enough to generate instability. Current model
soundings suggest not likely, so keeping PoPs mainly below 10
percent today.

For tomorrow, the area will be in the wake of the retrograding
low with weak height rises, yet some models suggest mid level
temperatures may fall to around -5 degrees C with slightly better
moisture sourced from Mexico. Other models keep any hope for
convection shut down with warmer temperatures aloft. First
inclination was to lower NBM PoPs based on these warmer
temperatures aloft, but there was enough guidance suggesting
otherwise such the the PoPs were left as is. Thus, a storm or two
may form as temperatures rise into the mid 90s, which will be
close to convective temperatures. Any storms would have minimal
CAPE to work with (~500 J/kj) and very weak flow. Thus single cell
brief storms would be most likely. Some gusty winds can`t be
ruled out given DCAPE around 1200 J/kg.

Ward

LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...

Sunday the upper low will be over southern Arizona with the ridge
building directly over the Panhandles. There is a slight chance
for precipitation Sunday across a majority of the forecast area
with a few weak perturbations in the ridge aloft. Monsoonal
moisture will continue to wrap around the east side of the low
into the Rockies with storms potentially firing along the
mountains of New Mexico and Colorado. With west northwesterly flow
aloft as the high continues to build overhead, there is a better
chance for storms to move into the western Panhandles. The NBM has
trended lower with PoPs since yesterday for Sunday and pushed the
greater chances farther west. Again, any shift in the low farther
west than the models are predicting could lead to a lower chance
for storms to occur in the Panhandles as the better moisture
source would remain further west as well.

Precipitation chances linger into Monday as the low pushes off
into the Pacific and the negatively tilted high builds across a
majority of the southern CONUS. This once again sets up the
potential for the flow aloft to transport monsoonal moisture into
the Rockies. Storms once again may develop off the mountains and
move into the northern Panhandles. The flow aloft will be weak
both Sunday and Monday, so storms will not be strongly driven
aloft. A few strong storms are possible, but there is a better
chance for some showers and weak thunderstorms.

The center of the negatively tilted 500mb high pressure continues
to build mostly stationary and centered over the Central Plains
with a majority of the monsoonal moisture remaining west of the
Rockies and out of the forecast area. Dry and warm conditions will
become the trend for next week with highs warming into the mid to
upper 90s, along with a few areas potentially hitting triple
digits. There is a slight chance for a shift and change in the
pattern by the end of next weekend.

Rutt

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

7/99