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000
FXUS63 KAPX 230659
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
259 AM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021

...Light Rain Possible, Thunder in the Morning?...

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...A warm front, associated with low
pressure in North Dakota, and extends into W Illinois, is
producing clouds and sprinkles over the forecast area this
afternoon. As this system, as well as the 500 mb ridge pattern
moves east, the chances for more significant precipitation will
increase overnight.

Primary Forecast Concerns...with the cloud cover, the primary
concern is the thunder potential overnight as the differential
advection and a weak 500 mb trough, and the warm front couple to
produce better chances for thunder. Not expecting severe as the
CAPE and shear are pretty limited, but a few rumbles in the SW
part of the forecast area by 12z aren`t out of the question.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 257 AM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021

...Thunderstorms Today and Saturday...

High Impact Weather Potential...Possible severe weather/heavy rain
Saturday.

Isolated severe weather possible Saturday morning. Upper ridge
remains over the west with westerlies across SW Canada and across
the Great Lakes. Leftover convection/remnants of MCS drop across the
area Saturday morning. Could be some isolated hail/damaging tstorms
winds as is normal with MCS remnants. PWAT values approach 2" over
the area showing the extent of high moisture over the region. Brief
heavy rain will also be a possibility.

Severe weather is possible Saturday afternoon/evening. A cold front
moves through Saturday night/Sunday morning. Ahead of the front very
moist air (~70F Td) and daytime peak heating will combine to bring
high CAPE values (2000+J/kg) and instability. 35kt 850mb jet
approaches from the Midwest providing convergence and descent low
level shear (bulk shear 40kts) while general diffluence in the upper
levels will enhance lift for the possibility of severe weather.
Afternoon lake breezes could trigger some better thunderstorms.
However best chance for severe weather seems to be just south of the
area more in line with the nose of the 850mb jet. SPC has a marginal
(5%) risk northwest and slight (15%) risk southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 257 AM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021

Upper ridge shifts slowly east through the period. Great Lakes
remain in warmer and higher humidity air. Warmest temperatures
occur Sunday and Monday. Frontal system moves in midweek with off
and on shower/tstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1147 PM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021

Expected VFR conditions to continue. Mid and upper level clouds
expected to give way to a relatively high based cumulus field
today. May see a few showers and storms develop, but current
trends support greatest potential for such to remain inland from
the taf locations. Better chances for more widespread showers and
storms holds off until just beyond this taf period. Light winds
will continue.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021

Tonight through Saturday...High pressure will slowly slide off
overnight, allowing winds to increase over the region on Friday.
Small craft criteria winds and waves won`t start until Friday
night, and continue into Saturday, mainly on Lake Michigan, and
portions of Lake Huron. The winds should diminish Saturday night.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JL
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...MB
MARINE...JL