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000
FXUS63 KAPX 220005
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
805 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 309 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

...Dry and still a bit Cool Tonight...

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Northern Michigan remains centered between Intermountain West/High
Plains ridge axis and northeast NOAM centered troughing early this
afternoon, with resultant northwest flow and deep layer subsidence
overhead. Extended area of Canadian originated high pressure
building directly under this subsidence regime across the Great
Lakes, the center of which is across the cold waters of Lake
Superior. Combination of the above bringing sun-filled skies, low
humidity, and pleasant temperatures to the Northwoods...with current
readings in the lower and middle 70s.

Not a whole lot of change heading through tonight, with surface
high pressure remaining in firm control of our weather.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges:

Cloud and temperature trends tonight.

Details:

Surface high pressure builds right across our area tonight.
Approach/passage of weak mid level wave dropping through northwest
flow aloft will likely bring some increasing mid and upper level
clouds later tonight, especially for areas south of the big
bridge. Dearth of forcing and low level moisture should keep
conditions dry. Tricky temperature forecast, with near ideal
radiational cooling conditions prior to those increasing clouds.
Kinda expect similar temperatures to those experienced last night,
with widespread readings in the lower and middle 50s, with some
of our typical colder locations making a run into the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 309 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

...Increasing Chances for Showers and Storms...

High impact weather: Locally heavy rainfall possible Friday night
and Saturday morning.

Models vary on how active this time period will be weather wise.
After initially starting out with a fairly dry atmosphere, moisture
slowly increases through the period, especially Friday into
Saturday. Meanwhile, a nearly stationary front located off to our
south and west will begin to move slowly toward the area. This front
is expected to eventually be the focus of some shower activity
across northern Michigan. In addition, warm air advection is on the
increase through the period. At this point do not expect more than a
stray shower during the day Thursday as there is little evidence of
much instability or forcing.

Moisture slowly creeps up later Thursday night into the day Friday
with precipitable water values increasing to between an inch and 1.5
inches Friday afternoon. This should increase chances for showers
and possibly a thunderstorm or two.

Precipitable water values then sky rocket to between 2 and 2.25
inches from late Friday night into Saturday. This in combination
with a short wave moving through the flow will bring better chances
for rain as well as lead to a heavy rain threat during this time.

Highs in the mid and upper 70s Thursday then the low and mid 80s
Friday and Saturday. Lows in the still comfortable mid and upper
50s Thursday night then the muggier low and mid 60s Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

...Uneventful Weather into early Next Week...

High impact weather potential: None is expected.

Perhaps some lingering showers Saturday night, otherwise a building
upper level ridge across the western states will lead to low
amplitude troughing across the East Coast westward into the Great
Lakes region where the flow will be nearly zonal into early next
week. This pattern is expected to lead to slightly above normal
temperatures and little to no rainfall. As we head toward mid-week
it looks like the region will be open to possible convective systems
that top the ridge and head southeast toward the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

VFR conditions expected to persist through the 00Z TAF valid time.
Mid-high level clouds will increase later tonight and linger into
Thursday with the passage of an upper-level disturbance. Light
winds will persist as well.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

Surface high pressure will continue to result in a weak pressure
gradient through Thursday night, bringing with it light winds and
limited wave action. Current trends support sub-advisory winds and
waves continuing through Friday, with increasing gusty southwest
winds returning later Friday night into Saturday.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MB
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...PB
MARINE...MB