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000
FXUS63 KAPX 210745
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
345 AM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

...Mostly sunny today with increasing clouds tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Cold front that passed thru Northern
Michigan yesterday has reached our state`s southern border early
this morning. Cool Canadian high pressure continues to build into
much of the Western Great Lakes in its wake. Residual low clouds
continue to slowly drop south thru Lower Michigan...with the back
edge now in the vcnty of M-32. Ongoing low level CAA behind the
front has allowed temps to fall into the 50s early this
morning...with some places expected to drop into the upper 40s
before sunrise.

Expect a rather quiet and pleasant late July day across our
Northwoods today as high pressure regains control of our wx. Once
remain low clouds push south of our CWA...mainly sunny skies are
expected for our entire area today as high temps warm into the 70s.
mid and high clouds will increase from SW to NE across our CWA
tonight well in advance of an approaching warm front. Still expect
no precip chances until after 12Z Thursday from this warm front. Low
temps tonight will cool back into the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal attm...

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

By Thursday morning, the Great Lakes region should be on the
southern edge of broad troughing centered over eastern Canada...with
ridging axis to the west through Manitoba...with another trough
upstream chugging eastward against this ridging. Will be looking for
troughing out west to continue to chug eastward...which should shift
the ridging eastward as well...with the ridge axis likely overhead
by Friday night...with increasingly warm...moist...and unsettled
conditions likely as well going into the end of the period.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Rain/storm potential through the period...

As shortwave energy drops through the flow into the base of the
troughing to our east Thursday...it should be associated with some
mid-level moisture...though there may be some concern for smoke
plumes aloft to put the damper on moisture. We`ll see.
Additionally...guidance continues to be slower and drier with precip
for Thursday...not a surprise, given antecedent dry conditions
with the Canadian high pressure in place...so will likely keep pops
on the lower side for now for the daylight hours. Still...there may
be enough instability as the shortwave moves through that some
rumbles of thunder are possible as well going into Thursday night.
Looks like the surface reflection of this shortwave may actually die
out to our east...acting more or less to reinforce the boundary that
should be lingering somewhere to our west (boundary left behind by
the system from last night). Going into Thursday night...looks like
an area of slightly increased divergence aloft moves into the
region, likely associated with a departing jet max. Right now...it
looks like better moisture will have slid south Thursday
night...becoming better co-located with this area of divergence
aloft...such that better chances of precipitation Thursday night may
be to our south...but may sneak into our western counties, even so.

That northwest to southeast oriented boundary to our
west will become an item of interest for the remainder of the
short term and into the long term. Firstly, with high pressure
settling in to our southeast...will look for return flow to advect
warm and moist air into the area, with Gulf moisture available again
after being effectively shut off by troughing lingering along the
Gulf coast much of this week. Will look for chances of perhaps some
warm advection precipitation...and/or diurnal storms Friday...as the
mid and low-levels continue to moisten up ahead of the approaching
upper level trough to our northwest. As this trough
approaches...will look for our boundary to head back north as a warm
front going into Friday night, ahead of a cold front that should
extend more or less southsouthwestward through the Upper MS valley,
extending from a surface low well to our north as a reflection of
the troughing aloft. Will definitely be keeping an eye on the
situation...as upstream convection may become a concern for us
going into Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal...for now...

As the aforementioned setup from Friday night presses into the Great
Lakes state going into Saturday...the "fun" should spread over to
our side of the lake. Pwats do appear to be somewhat on the
anomalous side going into Saturday, ahead of the front plowing
through the northern CONUS and southern Canadian Prairies...which is
something to keep an eye on...as it could be a signal of a potential
heavy rain event, with a lot of synoptic lift overlaying plentiful
moisture. Additionally...attm...with the warm sector of this system
somewhere in the vicinity...we could be looking at some increased
potential for storms. Will definitely be something to keep an eye
on in the coming days. Beyond this...there is increased disagreement
in guidance...though there is a chance we see the ridge try to
rebuild out west...as upstream troughing heads for the west coast
again...though it may still be on the warm side for our area in the
meantime. Do note current CPC guidance suggests a good chance at
above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation going into
the end of the month and the start of August.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1141 PM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021

Improving cigs tonight.

MVFR cigs are gradually thinning from n to s. As high pressure
builds southward from north of Superior, drier air will push into
the region. Anticipate all sites VFR by 09Z, with mainly VFR
conditions after that, thru the day on Wednesday.

Winds becoming light this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria thru tonight as high
pressure holds over the region. A warm front will lift into Michigan
on Thursday...resulting in increasing chances of showers and storms
for the last part of the work week.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MR
SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...MR