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000
FXUS63 KAPX 192320
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
720 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021

...A Cold Front Tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential...Thunderstorms Possible, not severe.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...The main concern is the cold front
moving through tonight, with the chance of thunderstorms.

The models have been showing some shower/thunderstorm activity for
the afternoon in the UP and in the SE counties. There are come cu
forming in the UP at the moment, so there is some lift along the
lake breeze boundaries, but the main issue is that the sfc
temperatures are lower due to the smoke aloft, like yesterday. This
has lead to lower instability. Looking at the model soundings, there
is some capping, and if the instability is expected to be lower,
then it will be harder to get much going this afternoon, which leads
into tonight.

There is some chance for elevated convection later tonight, but
based on the upstream convection falling apart this afternoon,
wondering if even the overnight night convection will hold together
for E Upper.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021

...Cooler for most with a chance of rain for some...

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Tuesday will see the tail end of a cold front associated
with a low pressure system over western Quebec sweeping through the
forecast area. Clouds and precipitation chances will increase from
north to south throughout the first half of Tuesday. The best
synoptic forcing and moisture has moved slightly east...to
include all of eastern upper and mostly east of the I-75 cooridor
across northern lower. QPF amounts in general are low...less than a
tenth of an inch...except the southeastern part of the CWA where
afternoon heating (depending on cloud cover throughout the earlier
part of the day) could enhance instability and produce a round of
heavier showers and possibly some rumbles of thunder. Precipitation
chances diminish after sunset and high pressure accompanied by drier
air take hold once again...producing a break throughout Wednesday
from any precipitation and reduced cloudiness. Temperatures will
rebound for all, reaching into the upper 70s for Wednesday after
parts of eastern upper barely reach 70 Tuesday. Lows Tuesday night
will be in the low to mid 50s.

Winds will be northwesterly with a few
gusts of up to 15-20 mph...especially during the afternoon hours.
Winds veer to more northerly by the late afternoon/early evening
hours and become light once again under high pressure, but with a
northerly component.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal.

Typical summer weather for northern Michigan. There are some hints
of weak disturbances that may produce chances of showers at times,
but all in all, rain-free weather will most likely be the
predominant winner. As these disturbances become closer, timing,
duration, and intensity will be more fine tuned. Daytime high
temperatures appear to be in the mid 70s to low 80s, with some hints
of warmer weather towards the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 720 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021

A cold front will gradually drop across northern lower MI late
tonight and Tuesday. This will bring a chance for SHRA/TSRA,
mainly behind the front, with the highest chance at APN, then PLN.
Lower cigs are also expected behind the front, with a period of
MVFR cigs Tuesday afternoon at APN/PLN and perhaps TVC.

Light sw to w winds will become northerly and a bit gusty by
Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021

Tonight through Wednesday...High pressure over the Upper Great
Lakes, will continue into the night, before a cold front begins to
push into the Upper Great Lakes by early Tuesday morning. Winds are
expected to veer to the NW and North and then increase into small
craft gusts for Tuesday afternoon and night, before the gradient
slackens Wednesday morning. Wednesday the winds will be below small
craft, and probably the waves as well.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JL