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000
FXUS63 KAPX 190331
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1131 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 921 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021

Super-smoky skies this evening, with high pressure entrenched in
the western lakes providing otherwise very quiet wx. No major
changes needed to the going forecast tonight. Have tweaked min
temps down very slightly Monday, with nw flow aloft continuing to
feed in smoke from Canada. That smoke was enough to hold back
temps today, and expect the same on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021

...High Pressure Part 3...

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...The main issue this afternoon was the
smoke limiting the sunshine so that we had to lower the high
temperatures today. Also there were some showers north of Montreal
River, ON earlier, that seemed to fall apart, which would agree
with the CAMs for this afternoon. So am expecting that the smoke
will stay in overnight, for a red sunset. The showers should stay
out of the forecast area, as the wave moves through the region late
this evening. Otherwise, High pressure will continue to produce
light winds and clear skies (other than the smoke) tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021

...Stretch of warm weather continues, but with a chance of rain...

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

A 1022 mb surface high pressure is progged to continue to be
centered just to our west. With ridging from this high pressure into
the Great Lakes region along with it`s accompanying dry air will
provide mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, warm temperatures, and
light winds for most of northern Michigan Monday (with some
afternoon gusts up to 10-15 mph possible). There will be a "hazy"
look to the skies as the northwesterly flow around the
aforementioned high draws in some smoke in the mid to upper levels
of the atmosphere from numerous Canadian wildfires. With the light
wind flow lake breezes are expected to occur once again during the
afternoon hours. Some models have hinted at the possibility of some
showers (maybe a rumble of thunder?) to develop on these convergence
zones in eastern upper and northeast lower. Continued with the
inherited slight chance pops as MLCAPE is progged to be near 1000
j/kg and the convergence zone will provide lift needed. The only
thing lacking is moisture, but with dewpoints in the mid 50s and
added moisture from the lake breeze it`s worth putting a slight
chance in. Tuesday will see the tail end of a cold front associated
with a low pressure system over western Quebec sweeping through the
forecast area. Clouds and precipitation chances will increase from
north to south throughout the first half of Tuesday giving the
entire CWA chance pops (only around 40-50%). A few rumbles of
thunder will be possible with any stronger showers that develop.
Showers will diminish throughout the late afternoon/evening hours as
high pressure once again dominates.

Winds will be light, but have a northwesterly component and a few
gusts of up to 10-15 mph...especially during the afternoon hours
both Monday and Tuesday due to diurnal mixing bringing elevated
winds to the surface.

Daytime temperatures will reach into the mid to upper 80s Monday
with some locations possibly reaching the 90 degree mark
...especially areas prone to downsloping north-northwest winds (some
locations of eastern upper and most of northeast lower). It will be
a bit cooler Tuesday behind the departing cold front, with
temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Monday night`s low
temperatures will drop to near 60 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal.

Typical summer weather for northern Michigan. There are some hints
of another cold fronts associated with a low pressure system to the
southeast of Hudson Bay and a supporting shortwave that may give us
another chance of some rain/thunder Wednesday night through the end
of the work week. This of course will most likely change as we get
closer to the actual timeframe. Daytime high temperatures appear to
be in the upper 70s to low 80s with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1131 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021

VFR, except maybe some fog at MBL overnight.

A touch of cirrus, and a whole bunch of smoke/haze aloft early
this evening. The smoke and cirrus is here to stay. Some cumulus
will redevelop on Monday, especially in ne lower MI. A few showers
could pop in the afternoon, mainly s and sw of APN. Light winds
will contribute to some potential fog overnight, with MBL the one
site that has somewhat consistently had some fog issues the last
few nights. Do have a few hours of IFR vsbys in a TEMPO group in
the MBL TAF.

Light winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021

Tonight through Tuesday...High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes,
will continue to stay over the region through the next week. This
will produce light winds at night, and lake breezes in the nearshore
waters through the weekend, probably into at least early next
week.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
NEAR TERM...JL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JL