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000
FXUS63 KAPX 180056
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
856 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 856 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

Smoky/fiery sunset in progress, with little else in the way of
cloud cover left. High pressure is centered just to our nw. Cu
remnants should continue to erode, with a quiet night ahead. Min
temps a few degrees warmer than last night.

Will be interesting to see if we can mix down some of the smoke
aloft on Sunday. Some indications that a few upstream locales were
able to do so late today, with IWD reporting 6SM in HZ for a
period.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 333 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...High Pressure Part 2...

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...As the title denotes, High pressure will
dominate our weather pattern for the next several days. The
difference tonight from last night, will be that the 500 mb ridge
will build into the Upper Great Lakes, allowing the 850 mb
temperatures to rise, and, in turn, the sfc temperatures a few
degrees. So the lows are expected to in the mid to upper 50s
tonight, instead of the lower to mid 50s, like last night. This may
lead to less ground fog in the morning, unlike this morning. The sfc
dewpoints today are expected to drop to the lower to mid 50s, and
with the sfc lows getting to the mid to upper 50s, probably won`t
saturate.

One thing of note, there is still a fair amount of smoke aloft, and
that is expected to obscure the sky some, and produce more redness
in the sky near sunset.

Also the ISS is expected to have a couple of 6 minute crossings over
the region around 1110 pm tonight, and 1248am tonight (Gaylord
time). To see when it will be over your town, go to
https://spotthestation.nasa.gov

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 333 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...Stretch of warm and dry weather continues...

High impact weather potential: None.

A 1023 mb surface high pressure is progged to continue to be
centered just to our west. This along with it`s accompanying dry air
will provide mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, warm temperatures,
and light winds (with some afternoon gusts up to 15-20 mph
possible). There will be a "hazy" look to the skies as the
northeasterly flow around the aforementioned high draws in some
smoke in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere from numerous
Canadian wildfires.

Winds will be light, but have a north to northwesterly
component and a few gusts of up to 15 to 20 mph during the afternoon
hours both Sunday and Monday due to diurnal mixing bringing elevated
winds to the surface.

Daytime temperatures will reach into the mid to upper 80s Sunday
and Monday with some locations possibly reaching the 90 degree mark
...especially areas prone to downsloping north-northwest winds
(some locations of eastern upper and most of northeast lower).
Sunday night`s low temperatures will drop to near 60 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 333 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal.

Typical summer weather for northern Michigan. There are some hints
of the tail ends of a couple cold fronts associated with low
pressure systems to the southeast of Hudson Bay and supporting
shortwaves may give us a couple chances of some rain/thunder Monday
night/Tuesday and again towards mid-week. This of course will most
likely change and the duration will be of a shorter duration for any
precipitation chances as we get closer to this timeframe.

Daytime high temperatures appear to be in the upper 70s to low 80s
with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 710 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

Mostly VFR. Perhaps a bit of fog at MBL overnight.

High pressure over the northern Great Lakes will keep our weather
quiet. Leftover cumulus field will diminish this evening, with
just smoke and a touch of cirrus overhead. Perhaps MBL sees a
touch of fog overnight. A bit of cumulus (VFR) will redevelop on
Sunday.

Light winds, with onshore lake breezes Sunday afternoon.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

Tonight through Monday...High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes,
will continue to stay over the region through the next week. This
will produce light winds at night, and lake breezes in the nearshore
waters through the weekend, probably into at least early next
week.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
NEAR TERM...JL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JL