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FXUS63 KARX 241051
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
551 AM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

GOES-East showing a mid-level trough pushing eastward across the
eastern Dakota/western MN. At the surface, a weak surface cold front
extended from western lake Superior through southwest MN. Radar was
showing scattered convection along the frontal boundary/ahead of the
mid-level trough.

The trough and surface front continues to push southeast into our
area this morning and through the day, exiting by late this
afternoon. There will be a decent cap in place, keeping the
convection elevated in nature and lacking shear -limiting severe
potential. Bulk of the showers/storms/resulting rainfall looks to be
north of I-90. Also doesn`t show promise for a substantial rain,
generally a tenth to a half inch expected...but could see a pocket
or two of some heavier amount potential given the high precipitable
water values/humid airmass in place. Again, not expecting much for
severe potential given weak shear but will have to keep an eye out
for a stronger cell or two with small hail and localized downburst
wind potential. Otherwise, won`t see a relief in the humidity
despite the frontal passage as drier air lags behind. Lingering
muggy airmass and highs topping off in the mid 80s to lower 90s will
produce heat indices in the 90 to 100 range...highest over portions
of northeast IA into far southwest WI.

Sunday will be another very warm day but should see a marked
difference in humidity levels as drier air filters in. Will likely
see hazy skies again though as wildfires out west and over portions
of Canada continue to produce smoke aloft. Otherwise, plan on highs
ranging from the mid-80s to lower 90s.

Enjoy the drier air Sunday as dew points start the creep upwards
again Sunday night as a warm front pushes northward out of the
Plains. Could also see a few showers/storms along this front but
appears they will stay just west of our area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

Upper level ridge amplification across the Intermountain West and
Plains will keep us in northwest flow aloft during this period. As
such, we will likely see intermittent shower/storm chances along
with very warm and rather muggy conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 549 AM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms persist through the
morning hours, ending from northwest to southeast over the course
of the mid morning to early afternoon. Conditions may fall to MVFR
for a short time within or just behind these storms before
clearing for the afternoon and tonight. Southwest winds of 5 to 10
kts veer to the northwest by midday with a few gusts over 20 kts
at higher elevations this afternoon before lessening this evening.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...Skow