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000
FXUS61 KCAR 261454
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1054 AM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift across the area today. A cold front
will cross the region tonight through Tuesday. High pressure
will cross the area Wednesday into Thursday. A cold front will
cross the area Thursday night through early Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1050 AM Update...Lots of updates as morning shortwave pulls
away. Heavy rain moved through Bridgewater this morning, with up
to an inch of rain in a fairly short period of time. Behind,
immediate clearing was apparent, and have updated sky cond. Also
adjusted temps up a few degrees in the clearest areas in
anticipation of better diurnal heating in these spots.

Patchy/areas of fog continue Downeast, now improving in the
Bangor Region and areas just S of I95. The coast will likely
continue to see fog through noon, but the declining cloud depth
will let sun warm the environment w/ fog dissipating.

Showers/storms this afternoon are still in play, but lowered
the coverage through early/mid afternoon. HRRR plays a linear
system w/ gusty winds through the north this evening, as well as
some multicell storms Downeast. SPC continues Marginal across
central/southern areas, while also expanding across the north.
Main threat will be gusty winds later with marginal shear and
vigorous low level lapse rates.

Previous Discussion...
A weak shortwave crossing the area early this morning will
bring some spotty showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
north early this morning which should exit to the east by mid
morning. Weak low pressure will track into Quebec today as a
very weak surface trough extends south from this low across our
area. Southwesterly winds just east of this trough advecting
warmer air north under relatively cooler air moving from west to
east aloft will result in an unstable air mass today. Capes
across the area run from 400 J/KG on the GFS to 1800 J/KG on the
NAM across the area. The NAM is likely overdone. However, some
instability will likely allow some thunderstorms to develop.
There are no strong surface features to spawn thunderstorms so
any storms will likely be few and far between. However, given
the instability and a little bit of shear, any storms come bring
locally strong gusty winds and hail. The best chance for storms
will be from the central highlands east across south central
parts of the area late today into this evening. Storms will
taper off tonight as a weak cold front pushes through
approaching the coast late tonight. This will bring a partly
cloudy night with some cooler air filtering into the north late
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will slowly cross Downeast areas Tuesday, while an
upper level disturbance crosses the region. Expect a chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of the front Tuesday,
with a slight chance/chance of showers across northern areas
with the upper level disturbance. The cold front will exit
across the Gulf of Maine Tuesday night, while high pressure
begins to build across the region. Could still have the chance
of an evening shower/thunderstorm Downeast with the exiting
front. Otherwise, expect decreasing clouds later Tuesday night
with building high pressure. High pressure will cross the
region Wednesday through Wednesday night with mostly clear to
partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will be at near normal, to
slightly below normal, levels Tuesday. Below normal level
temperatures are expected Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will exit early Thursday, with a cold front
approaching later Thursday. Expect a chance of showers in
advance of the cold front Thursday. The cold front then crosses
the region Thursday night, while an upper level trof
approaches. Expect a chance of showers/thunderstorms with the
cold front Thursday night. The cold front will exit across the
Gulf of Maine Friday, while the upper trof crosses the region.
Cold air aloft with the upper trof, along with diurnal heating,
will steepen lapse rates and help support the chance of
showers/thunderstorms Friday which could persist into the
evening. The upper trof will begin to move east later Saturday.
However, cool temperatures aloft and diurnal heating will again
support another chance of showers and thunderstorms. The better
chances of showers/thunderstorms will occur across the north
and mountains, with lesser chances Downeast. A cold front should
cross the region Sunday with a chance of showers/thunderstorms,
though timing differences still exist. Temperatures will remain
at below normal levels Thursday through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR conditions in low clouds and fog are likely this
morning, improving to MVFR late this morning. Conditions should
improve to VFR this afternoon into tonight with exceptions in
any thunderstorms this afternoon or evening.

SHORT TERM:
Tuesday...Variable conditions early with fog. Otherwise,
generally VFR north with a slight chance of showers. VFR/MVFR
Downeast with a chance of showers/thunderstorms. West/northwest
winds 10 to 15 knots.

Tuesday night...Variable conditions Downeast with any evening
showers/thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR. Northwest/west winds
around 10 knots.

Wednesday through Wednesday night...VFR. Northwest winds 10 to
15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots Wednesday. Variable
winds 5 to 10 knots Wednesday night.

Thursday...VFR early, then VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.
South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Thursday night...Variable conditions with showers and
thunderstorms. South/southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts
up to around 20 knots.

Friday...Variable conditions with showers and thunderstorms.
Variable winds around 10 knots, becoming west/northwest 10 to 15
knots.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Wind and seas should remain below SCA today and
tonight. Humid air over the waters will likely result in some
fog today into tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels
Tuesday through Wednesday night. Visibilities reduced in fog
Tuesday. A chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through
early Tuesday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Bloomer/Cornwell
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Bloomer/Cornwell/Norcross
Marine...Bloomer/Cornwell/Norcross