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000
FXUS61 KCAR 251444
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1044 AM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will approach today then cross the area tonight.
A cold front will cross the area on Tuesday. High pressure will
build over the area Wednesday. Low pressure will approach on
Thursday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Update...Updated PoPs for weakening precip area ahead of the
warm front. Decreased QPF amounts today and this evening.
Reduced area for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon to the
the far NW border of the state. Increased wind gusts for today. Added
isolated thunderstorms after midnight as a strong shortwave and
elevated instability arrives in northern zones. Adjusted highs
upward for today by a degree or two. Increased lows tonight.
Refined fog forecast today into Monday morning and added mention
of widespread fog later tonight. Increased cloud cover into
Monday morning...which will decrease instability. Maintained
thunderstorms in the forecast for Monday afternoon, but not
confident in enhanced wording for winds at this point.

Previous Discussion...
A warm front will approach today then cross the region tonight.
A cold/occluded front then begins to cross the region later
tonight. Aloft, an upper level disturbance will cross the region
today with a second disturbance then crossing tonight.
Isentropic lift in advance of the warm front, along with the
upper level disturbance, will support an area of rain which will
move east across the forecast area today. Could also have
enough elevated instability to support an isolated thunderstorm
this afternoon. Will also have areas of fog Downeast this
morning. Rain will persist early tonight, then taper to showers
overnight. Lingering low level moisture will support areas of
fog across the region tonight. High temperatures today will
range from the upper 60s to lower 70s across the forecast area.
Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 50s to around
60.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak cold front will push across the area Monday and stall
near the coast at the end of the day. Chilly air aloft
associated with an upper trough over eastern Canada extending
south across our region will result in an unstable atmosphere
Monday. Cape forecasts vary from just 200-300 J/KG on the GFS,
to over 1500 J/KG on the NAM across the area with the highest
capes in the south. The NAM is usually a bit overdone on capes.
Thunderstorms will be possible Monday with the instability.
Moderately strong winds aloft will mean any storms could produce
briefly strong gusty winds. The cooler air aloft could also
support hail in any of the storms. The best chance for
significant storms will be across south central parts of the
region along the stalling frontal boundary which will run from
the west central highlands east across south central Penobscot
County and into the northern Downeast region. A secondary cold
front will approach Monday night and push into the area Tuesday
as a new shortwave supports a small low along the front. This
will bring another chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
moving across from northwest to southeast. Gusty winds and brief
heavy downpours will again be possible with a small but
vigorous upper trough backing this front. The frontal boundary
late in the day will again be focused over south central areas
where some locally strong storms will be possible during the
afternoon. High pressure should follow Tuesday night bringing
clearing from west to east as cooler air from the Eastern
Canadian trough flows into the area.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure building over on Wednesday should bring a partly
to mostly sunny and pleasant day with light winds. High pressure
will slide east Wednesday night. The calm air and moist ground
may allow some patchy fog to form late at night. A southerly
breeze will then increase late at night behind the high pressure
system which will be sliding off to the east. Another fast
moving shortwave rounding the bottom of the eastern Canadian
trough should approach on Thursday supporting low pressure that
will approach and cross the area late Thursday. This will likely
bring a period of significant rain across the area Thursday
especially during the afternoon. The shortwave will slide east
and cooler drier air will follow Thursday night into Friday as
high pressure builds in. Friday night will likely turn out dry
and cool. Yet another shortwave may approach with showers on
Saturday.
&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Across northern areas, VFR conditions this morning
will lower to MVFR/IFR levels this afternoon with developing
rain. An isolated thunderstorm is also possible this afternoon.
IFR/LIFR conditions will then occur tonight with rain tapering
to showers. Across Downeast areas, variable conditions will
occur early this morning with fog. Conditions then lower to
IFR/LIFR levels through the late morning and afternoon with
developing rain. An isolated thunderstorm is also possible this
afternoon. IFR/LIFR conditions will then occur tonight with rain
tapering to showers. Southerly low level wind shear is a
concern across the entire region through mid to late morning.
South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots
today. South winds around 10 knots early tonight, becoming
west/southwest late.

SHORT TERM:
Monday: VFR except briefly MVFR or IFR in any thunderstorms. SW wind
Downeast, NW wind over the north.

Monday night: VFR. W wind.

Tuesday: VFR to MVFR. Chance of showers. SW to NW winds.

Tuesday night: VFR. NW wind.

Wednesday: VFR. Light W wind, becoming SW Downeast late.

Wednesday night: VFR. Light and variable wind becoming S.

Thursday: VFR lowering to MVFR or IFR in rain. S wind.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels today through tonight. Visibilities will be reduced in
fog today through tonight. Rain will develop today then persist
tonight.

SHORT TERM: Wind and seas are expected to remain below SCA this
week. Humid air over the waters may produce areas of fog,
especially early in the week. A frontal boundary approaching the
waters could bring some thunderstorms late Monday and again
late Tuesday.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$

Near Term...Norcross
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...Norcross/Bloomer
Marine...Norcross/Bloomer