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000
FXUS61 KCAR 241342
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
942 AM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will cross the region today, then exit across the
Maritimes tonight. A warm front will cross the region Sunday,
followed by a weak cold front on Monday. An upper trough will
remain over the area Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
935 AM Update: Patchy low lying valley fog has lifted from the
region, but not without some impact on fcst hrly temps til
midday, which had to be adjusted downward ovr some Nrn areas due
to fog persisting an hr or two longer than anticipated and the
slowness of the sfc base nocturnal invsn breaking due to lgt sfc
winds and weak mixing. Despite the slower start to diurnal sfc
temp rises into mid morn, there is plenty of tm for temps to
catch up to prior fcst hrly temps by midday under a late July
sun with latest obs interpolated to midday temps, with no sig
chgs planned for aftn fcst hi temps attm.

Prev Disc: High pressure will cross the region today, then exit
across the Maritimes tonight. A warm front will also approach,
from the west, late tonight. Patchy fog will dissipate early
this morning leaving sunny/mostly sunny skies across the
forecast area today. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect
along the Downeast coast today. Clouds will increase tonight in
advance of the approaching warm front. Could also have a chance
of showers late across northwest areas. Fog is possible along
the Downeast coast late tonight. High temperatures today will
generally range from the upper 70s to around 80 across much of
the forecast area, with lower to mid 70s along the Downeast
coast. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the
lower to mid 50s across the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure sliding off to the east combined with a surface trough
approaching from the west will bring an increasing southerly breeze
on Sunday. Clouds will increase from west to east. A warm front will
move into the west Sunday morning with an area of showers. The
showers will weaken a bit as they move east into cooler air coming
north from the ocean during the midday and afternoon Sunday. The
warm front will lift northeast of the area late Sunday night into
Monday. An upper trough and some cooler air aloft will result in a
continued chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms late Sunday
night into Monday, especially across the north. A weak shortwave in
the upper trough will approach Monday night along with a weak cold
front which will bring a chance for showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm into Tuesday. The front and associated shortwave will
slide southeast late Tuesday carrying the showers east into New
Brunswick and offshore.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will build into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday
bringing a partly to mostly sunny day on Wednesday. The high will
remain over the area into Thursday. A new shortwave will approach
late Thursday and possibly develop low pressure over the Gulf of
Maine Thursday night into Friday. This will likely bring showers,
and possibly a period of steady rain Thursday night into Friday. The
low will continue northeast into the Maritimes on Saturday. However,
an upper trough remaining over the area may keep the weather
unsettled with a continued chance for showers over the area into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Variable conditions will occur across the forecast
area early this morning with patchy fog. Variable conditions
will then occur along the Downeast coast later tonight with fog.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected across the region today
through tonight. Variable winds around 10 knots today. South
winds 5 to 10 knots tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Sunday: VFR, possibly becoming MVFR Downeast. South wind.

Sunday night: VFR to MVFR. South wind becoming light and variable.

Monday: Possibly MVFR Downeast early. Otherwise, VFR. SW wind.

Monday night: VFR except locally MVFR in rain showers. W wind.

Tuesday: VFR. NW wind.

Tuesday night: MVFR north, MVFR to IFR downeast. N wind.

Wednesday: MVFR to VFR north. IFR to MVFR Downeast.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels today through tonight. Visibilities reduced in fog later
tonight.

SHORT TERM: A few wind gusts may reach 25 kt over the offshore
waters late Sunday into Sunday evening in a south wind.
Otherwise, wind and seas are expected to remain below SCA
through next week. Humid air over the waters will likely result
in some fog, especially early in the week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...VJN/Bloomer
Marine...VJN/Bloomer