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000
FXUS61 KCAR 240414
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1214 AM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region overnight through
Saturday, then move east Saturday night. A warm front will
approach the region Sunday into Sunday night. A cold front will
move across the area Monday night into early Tuesday. Low
pressure tracks towards the state Wednesday into Thursday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Update...
High pressure will build toward the region overnight with
clear/mostly clear skies. Will also have patchy fog overnight.
Overnight low temperatures will range from the mid 40s to
around 50 north, to the lower to mid 50s Downeast. Have updated
the forecast to adjust for current conditions along with
overnight temperatures and clouds.

Previous Discussion...
Under msly skies Sat, temps will recover rapidly to near
seasonal aftn high temps for this tm of season with cont`d lgt
winds.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface and upper level highs will move east during the night
with a moister southerly flow developing. Stratus and fog will
arrive along the coast later in the night with some drizzle. The
low clouds will tend to advect northward and eastward on Sunday
ahead of a weakening warm front. Expect stable and cool
conditions under an emerging frontal inversion and maritime
flow. The warmest temps will be in NE Aroostook where some
morning sunshine could warm temps to the lower 70s. In contrast,
an onshore flow will limit coastal highs to the low to mid 60s. The
upper level support for the warm front shears apart with a
sharply diffluent flow and QPF amounts will be on the light
side...with amounts ranging from a tenth to quarter inch through
Sunday evening. Moistening low levels increase the fog risk
Sunday night and will cap lows in the lower 60s. A second upper
level shortwave arrives later Sunday night with increasing
shear and decent mid-level lapse rates. An 850/925mb thermal
ridge will cross later in the night and elevated CAPE will
increase. As a result, will mention a chance of thunderstorms
later Sunday night. On Monday, a warm occlusion crosses in the
morning and will produce a much warmer and humid day. Fog and low
clouds will gradually dissolve and some SBCAPE will develop in
the afternoon. However, there`s not a lot of moisture and upper
level dynamics are not as impressive as early Monday. Highs will
climb back into the upper 70s to lower 80s.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front crosses Monday night into Tuesday
morning...bringing less humid conditions and slightly cooler
temperatures. Temperatures in the upper 70s will reach the coast
with an offshore flow. An upper trough keeps a chance of showers
in the forecast on Tuesday. Can`t rule out thunderstorms. A
cool and unsettled pattern develops for the mid to late week as
a northern stream shortwave moves out of the Great Lakes region
and a fairly strong upper low emerges over the area by late
week. At this point, guidance varies significantly on timing
with the GFS bringing in precip by later Wednesday while ECMWF
holds off until later Thursday. An ensemble approach placed the
higher PoPs Thursday into Thursday evening. Expect highs to only
reach the lower 70s or less across the area for Wednesday into
Saturday.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Variable conditions with any patchy fog overnight
through early Saturday. Otherwise, VFR through Saturday. Light
and variable winds overnight. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots
Saturday.

SHORT TERM: Saturday night...VFR except IFR in fog/low cigs
later in the night for coastal sites such as BHB, Machias, and
potentially as far north as BGR.

Sunday...Early morning IFR for BGR and BHB, elsewhere morning
VFR gives way to MVFR cigs in the afternoon.

Sunday night...IFR cigs develop for the entire area with fog on
the coast...to include BHB. Thunderstorms possible late for all
sites.

Monday...IFR cigs retreat to coast in the morning...giving VFR
for all sites by afternoon. Thunderstorms possible.

Monday night...VFR with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

Tuesday into Wednesday...VFR expected. Possible MVFR cigs later
in rain.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels
overnight through Saturday.

SHORT TERM: Fog is expected to develop late Saturday night,
dissipate Sunday morning, but thicken again by Sunday evening
and remain in place into Monday night. Stability is expected to
prevent SCA conditions Sunday night as model guidance is too
high on winds and seas. Thunderstorms are a threat late Sunday
night into Monday evening.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Saturday through
     Saturday evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Norcross/VJN
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...Norcross/MCW
Marine...Norcross/MCW