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000
FXUS61 KLWX 061404
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1004 AM EDT Mon Sep 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross the region this morning. High
pressure will return later today into Tuesday. Another cold
front will progress through the area during the middle of the
week with high pressure building in by late in the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Latest analysis depicts a cold front sliding southeastward
across the Eastern Shore into the Northern Neck of Virginia at
present. This front will clear the Mid-Atlantic region by early
afternoon, but clouds and showers will pull out much faster.
Any residual showers across far southern St. Marys County and
the adjacent waters will diminish shortly. High pressure
building in from the west will result in a west to northwest
breeze under sunny skies by this afternoon with lower humidity
and highs returning to near normal.

Tonight, light winds and clear skies with lower dew points will
result in a cool night away from the urban core with 50s common.
Patchy fog could occur in the sheltered valleys, but most areas
should stay clear.

Tuesday will be a bit warmer with the high starting to shift
offshore and winds shifting west-southwest, bringing warm
advection over the region. Plenty of sunshine should help with
this.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Warm advection clouds start to develop across the region Tuesday
night with a weak boundary pushing north, but expect the night
to stay dry. Lows will be milder.

Wednesday is a bit murky, with some guidance depicting a weak
wave producing showers across the region for a fair chunk of the
day, while others keep us dry until evening. Have included some
chance pops, but limited instability precluded inclusion of any
thunder for most of the area until evening, when the upper
trough and surface front to the northwest approaches. That said,
timing may preclude any significant thunderstorm development
even then, but will maintain mention of isolated severe in the
HWO. Otherwise, some sun and southwest flow should result in
Wednesday being the warmest day of the week, with temps
approaching 90. Front crosses the region at night, with a good
chance of showers, but still uncertainty regarding thunder
thanks to aforementioned poor timing. Lows mostly in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front will be pushing through the eastern half of the
CWA early Thursday, with some disagreement amongst global
guidance in its progression. Will maintain a slight chance of
showers Thursday morning east of the I-95 corridor as a result.
High pressure over the central U.S. will build eastward
thereafter, resulting in a dry forecast to finish out the work
week and through next weekend. There are some indications of a
weak upper level disturbance approaching from the northwest
Sunday night into early next week, which could spark shower
activity across the Potomac and Allegheny Highlands, but given
it`s day 7, will hold serve with the dry forecast promised above
for now.

Temperature wise, slightly below normal temps are favored
Thursday and Friday behind the frontal passage. As high pressure
builds over the region and then offshore by late weekend,
temperatures are expected to moderate toward seasonal norms
during this time. Humidity levels will remain in check
throughout the long term portion of the forecast, as dewpoints
hover in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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With any morning fog having dissipated, expect VFR conditions
through Tuesday night. By Wednesday, scattered showers or even a
stray thunderstorm may result in sub-VFR conditions at times.

A cold front will slide to the east early Thursday, with a few
lingering showers possible over the eastern terminals during
this time. VFR conditions dominate thereafter through Friday
night as high pressure builds toward the region and northwest
winds remain light at 10 knots or less.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Developing northwesterly breeze behind the front this afternoon
may flirt with SCA, but will keep winds just below threshold.
Winds relax tonight and Tuesday under high pressure, but next
front approaching will result in another widespread SCA even due
to southerly channeling Tuesday night into Wednesday. Winds
relax with the frontal passage Wednesday night, but can`t rule
out a gusty thunderstorm during this time.

A cold front will push east of the waters early Thursday with
high pressure building back into the region through the end of
the work week. North northwest breezes will prevail behind the
front through Friday night. A period of northerly channeling
winds Thursday night into early Friday may yield SCA gusts over
the wider waters of the Chesapeake Bay.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Southerly channeling will result in higher anomalies this
morning, but they should decline a bit as winds shift more
westerly by tonight. It will be short-lived, however, with
southerly flow resuming with rising anomalies by Tuesday night.
This might result in minor flooding at sensitive sites by
Wednesday morning.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM/BRO
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...BKF
AVIATION...BKF/RCM/BRO
MARINE...BKF/RCM/BRO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RCM