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000
FXUS64 KCRP 060852
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
352 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...

A quiet pleasant day today across South Texas as high pressure
continues to build in with the surface high centered over the
central Great Plains. Mostly sunny skies over farther inland
portions with only a few clouds near the coast. Light to moderate
east-northeast winds will keep highs in the lower 80s near the coast
to the mid 90s across the Brush Country. Winds become calm under
clear skies over much of South Texas tonight, allowing for efficient
radiational cooling and the potential of patchy fog late overnight
into Friday morning. There is low confidence of patchy fog at this
time so did not include in the forecast, but it is worth mentioning
the SREF indicating a 30-50% probability of less than 3 mile
visibility over the inland Coastal Plains and Brush Country. Lows
in the low to mid 60s are expected over South Texas tonight.

Ridging aloft continues to build into the area through Friday,
keeping skies mostly clear and dry conditions intact. Surface winds
will strengthen and shift out of the southeast through Friday
afternoon. This is due to the surface high over the Great Plains
shifting southeastward over the SE CONUS and a surface low pressure
developing east of the Rocky Mountains, causing a tighter pressure
gradient. Highs will be near the same of today, from the lower 80s
near the coast to the mid 90s across the Brush Country.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...

Mid-level ridging will remain over the region into Saturday before
the ridge begins to flatten as troughing deepens over the northern
Rockies. A weak short wave passes Saturday, but expect the area to
remain mainly dry through the weekend, though a streamer shower
can`t be ruled out Saturday morning. By Sunday night, we could see a
few showers in the Victoria Crossroads region. Deepening surface low
pressure to the northwest will increase onshore flow to moderate
levels though, leading to breezy conditions for the weekend. Clouds
will be on the increase especially Sunday into next week.

We`ll get a little more active by mid week as the aforementioned mid
level trough moves across the central part of the country. Timing is
still off between models on this feature...though a little bit
better than previous runs. GFS is still the slower solution with
a cutoff low holding it back. ECMWF now a bit faster, with the
Canadian model much faster. Regardless, it looks like a fair
chance for showers and storms as the cap weakens and PWAT values
increase to around or slightly above 2 inches. With the energy
expected to remain well north, will not be looking for a big rain
event, just some scattered showers and storms.

Above normal temperatures are expected through the weekend and
into the early part of next week. A cold front associated with the
mid- week trough will bring slightly cooler temperatures by
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...

A weak to moderate east to northeast flow through Friday will
turn southeasterly by Friday night and strengthen to moderate.
Moderate onshore flow Saturday increases to moderate to strong
levels Saturday night and Sunday with small craft advisory
conditions possible. Onshore flow will diminish to moderate levels
for Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    84  61  82  71  85  /   0   0   0   0  10
Victoria          85  60  84  67  87  /   0   0   0   0  10
Laredo            95  63  94  71  99  /   0   0   0   0   0
Alice             90  61  88  68  92  /   0   0   0   0  10
Rockport          85  69  82  73  81  /   0   0   0   0  10
Cotulla           94  64  94  70  98  /   0   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        88  63  86  70  88  /   0   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       83  71  81  73  83  /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

EMF/94...SHORT TERM
PH/83...LONG TERM