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000
FXUS63 KDDC 060727
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
227 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021

...Updated Short Term and Long Term Discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021

An area of high pressure will cross southwest Kansas today which
will result in light winds gradually veering to the southeast by
late day. Highs today will be mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s
this afternoon based on the 00z Tuesday temperatures near the top
of the BUFR sounding NAM forecast mixed layer. The exception will
be across far southwest Kansas where some warmer air will begin
to return given the improving downslope flow and warmer 850mb
temperatures late day. Highs across extreme southwest Kansas
should easily climb into the mid 70s as gusty south winds develop
late in the day.

Tonight clear skies will give way to some increasing clouds as
moisture and warm air advection improves in the 850mb to 700mb
level near the eastern edge of a 0 to 4C 700mb temperature
gradient that will be crossing western Kansas during the overnight
hours. A few late night/early Friday morning thunderstorms could
even develop in this area (east of a Hays to Larned to Coldwater
line) after 3am Friday morning based on the forecast 850mb to
700mb moisture advection, 850mb warm air advection and mid level
instability. Lows early Friday mornings are currently expected to
be mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021


A few early Friday morning thunderstorms will be possible east of
a Hays to Larned to Coldwater line where the NAM and GFS forecast
an area of 850mb to 700mb moisture advection and mid level
instability. This area of better moisture and lift early Friday
morning will move east into Central Kansas as warmer temperatures
in the mid levels begin to spread east. Along with the warmer mid
level temperatures a trough of low pressure will be deepening
along the lee of the Rockies during the day on Friday and the
developing southeasterly flow in the lower level east of this
surface boundary will begin to draw more humid air back across the
Panhandle of Texas/Oklahoma and possibly even southwest Kansas.
A few models do suggest a slight chance for thunderstorms late
day across portions of far southwest Kansas given late day
heating and improving mid level instability ahead of an
approaching upper level wave. 0-6km shear late day from the NAM
also supports that if storms do develop then the potential that a
few of these may be severe. It currently appears that should
severe weather develop the main hazards will be large hail along
with some gusty winds. NAM and GFS differ on how much of southwest
Kansas may be impacted by these storms Friday evening and
personal confidence on where all this will unfold is low given the
uncertainty of how warm the mid level temperatures will be late
day, magnitude of the moisture return and location of the surface
boundary and moisture axis 48 hours out.

For Saturday the models were in good agreement with an upper
level ridge crossing the Central Plains as our next upper level
system exits the Central Rockies and moves out into the West
Central High Plains. A warm front will move across southwest
Kansas towards the Nebraska border during the day as a dry line
marches east across western Kansas. These two boundaries will
provide an area of enhanced low level forcing ahead of this next
upper level trough for late day storms. At this time however based
on the warm mid level temperatures forecast across southwest
Kansas late day it appears the better opportunity for convection
late Saturday into Saturday night will be along the warm front in
north central Kansas. A better chance for severe weather will be
exist Saturday afternoon and evening along this surface boundary
and based on the 0-6km shear, mid level instability and moisture
return.

As for temperatures on Saturday...it appears that conditions are
shaping up for Saturday to be the warmest day of the next 7 days
with highs in the 90s being likely for much, if not all, of western
Kansas.

Thunderstorm chances will taper off from west to east late
Saturday night as the upper level trough crosses the Central
Plains and the surface boundary moves back south as a cold front.
Gusty north winds and cooler air will be returning to western
Kansas behind this cold front late this weekend and is likely to
linger through the first half of next week given the forecast
cloud cover, precipitation chances from Sunday night through
Wednesday and magnitude of the colder air forecast by the GFS and
ECMWF that will be settling into western Kansas.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021

A surface cold front will cross southwest Kansas between 06z and
09z Thursday. As this cold front passes late tonight the southerly
winds at 10 knots or less will shift to the north northwest.
These northerly winds at around 10 knots will then gradually veer
to the east southeast during the day on Thursday as an area of
high pressure at the surface crosses western Kansas. BUFR
soundings earlier this morning indicating clear/mostly clear
conditions overnight and Thursday. Clear skies will begin to give
way to some increased clouds early Thursday night as an increase
in moisture above 6000ft begins to spread into western Kansas.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  49  87  56 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  72  48  88  54 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  76  53  90  56 /   0   0  20  10
LBL  74  52  90  55 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  68  45  80  52 /   0  20  20   0
P28  72  49  84  59 /   0  30  30  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert