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000
FXUS63 KDVN 060804
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
304 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021

A shortwave trough and associated weak surface low are moving
across the CWA this morning producing scattered light showers or
sprinkles. The wave is embedded within a broad trough covering the
central US.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021

The trough continues making steady eastward progress with the back
edge of the showers in central Iowa. CAMS indicate the back edge
should near the Mississippi River around 12Z then exit the CWA
after 18Z.

A good shot of CAA is indicated at 850mb behind the wave so temps
todays will be a few degrees colder than yesterday. As clouds
clear and we get some sunshine, with the colder air aloft we could
see isolated instability showers during the afternoon, but
nothing significant.

There is some indication of another weak wave moving through the
area tonight. But at this point it looks to brush the northern
part of the CWA with a low chance of showers. Overnight temps will
be chilly around 40 degrees.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021

1. Still slightly below average temperatures through the period.
2. Chance for precip Saturday into Sunday still has much
uncertainty.


Discussion:

Temperatures will remain with highs only in the 60s through the
period.  By the end of the long term, mid-week next week, we could
see some temps reaching near the 70s.  Otherwise, the upper 30s to
low 40s at nigh with 60s during the day are expected as the warm
front remains south of our area.  These temps are around ten degrees
below average.  There is the potential for a frost and even possibly
a freeze some nights during the period.  Conditions will have to be
just right for it to occur, but it is not out of the question.

Overall rex block pattern to the north is in place.  A wave tries to
skirt underneath this.  This wave is expected to cause the precip
this weekend.  There are still major differences between the
guidance with the track of this upper level wave.  Depending on
where it tracks we could only see a few tenths (ECM) to well over an
inch in some areas (GFS).  There is not much clarity tonight in the
guidance.  The models have gotten a little tighter in the
dispersion, so it seems we may be getting closer to an agreement.
There will be a chance for embedded thunder Saturday night, mainly
south of I80 with no severe threat at the current time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021

A shortwave trough is pushing across the area tonight producing
little more than scattered sprinkles. The wave should clear TAF
locations after 12z. Generally speaking, no restrictions are
anticipated except for perhaps a brief period of MVFR ceilings at
CID or DBQ early this morning. Isolated pop up showers are
possible this afternoon but should have little or no impact on
aviation operations.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wolf
SHORT TERM...Wolf
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...Wolf