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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 060522
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1122 PM MDT Wed May 5 2021

.AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE
P6SM SKC-FEW250 through 18Z with some FEW-SCT100-120 developing
after 18Z. Winds light to start the period, but a boundary
dropping in from the northeast will shift winds more to the north
to east at all terminals around 5-15KTS with some gusts to 25KTS
around KTCS and possibly down to KDMN by 14Z. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms will likely develop south of the border
in the late afternoon and a few may push north into the area after
00Z, but confidence in storms reaching any terminal is low so kept
out of TAF for now, but some gusty outflow winds may push out of
the south during the early evening.

&&
26/29

.PREV DISCUSSION...243 PM MDT Wed May 5 2021...

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing moisture across the Borderland Thursday and Friday will
give the area a slight chance of thunderstorms. The best chances
will be east of the Rio Grande Valley. Drier air will move in
Saturday, ending the chance of rain and returning us to a sunny
and breezy pattern for the weekend and beginning of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Thursday...
While today will top out 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday
thanks to a strengthening upper level riding/height rises, wind
has remained light. This trend will continue most of the night,
with wind that becomes variable and terrain driven, and above
normal low temperatures Thursday morning. A weak backdoor front
will push into the region early Thursday, causing a E/NE wind
shift, with some minor breezes across some of the north to south
oriented valleys and west slopes during the predawn hours.

As we go into the day Thursday, the upper ridge will continue to
amplify, and surface winds will turn southeasterly, allowing for a
slow influx of moisture during the day. Surface dewpoints will rise
into the 30s and PW values by tomorrow late afternoon jump to the
0.5" (north) to 0.75" (south) range. Global models hold off on
rainfall until after this period (after 6 pm Thursday), and CAMs are
backing of on timing of storm development each run. Regardless,
there is a window in the afternoon where the atmosphere
destabilizes, and enough instability exists where orographically-
driven storms could occur over our northern Mountain areas. As
storms start, they will be high based. With DCAPE values upwards of
1500j/kg, there could be a few virga-driven wind gusts until the
atmospheric column moistens. As we move into the evening on
Thursday, a better slug of moisture will enter into the Borderland
from Mexico, increasing lowland rain chances. Temperatures on
Thursday will reach a handful of degrees higher than today.

&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through Wednesday...
Moisture advection from the south/southeast will continue Thursday
night and Friday. Models all similar, and a bit more aggressive
on the whole than previous runs; showing higher moisture occupying
most of the CWA Thursday night. Drying out will begin on Friday,
though upper trough is a bit slower than previous model runs had
shown, with surface dryline forming late Friday afternoon along
the western margins of the Rio Grande Valley. The moisture remains
in the CWA from about El Paso east late Friday night and doesn`t
clear the eastern CWA til early Saturday morning. All this means a
slight chance of thunderstorms Thur night/Friday, mainly from the
Rio Grande Valley east. Limited CAPE available Thursday but
decent directional shear, so a few storms could approach severe.
Much better CAPE available Friday. Flow more unidirectional Friday
(southwest) so just some speed shear available. WBZs both days
around 12-13kft, so some hail is likely.

Upper trough moves across the area mid day Saturday, allowing
rapid drying to the area. New troughs develop west of the area
Sunday and Monday. So expect winds to increase into breezy
category. Saturday looks to be the windiest of the three days as
decent lee- side low develops. Back door cold front moves into
eastern New Mexico Sunday and Monday, inhibiting lee-side trough
development and stronger pressure gradient. Continued fair weather
Tuesday and Wednesday as upper trough finally passes through.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Calm weather continues tonight, but that changes starting tomorrow
when winds turn easterly, then southerly during the day Thursday.
This will cause a slow influx of moisture, increasing rain changes.
Rain may hold off until Thursday evening focusing on the Continental
Divide-area, but there is a slight-chance for afternoon mountain
storms. On Friday, rain chances are best east of the Rio Grande
valley. Friday will feature the strongest storms and potential for
pockets of moderate rain. Erratic and gusty outflow winds will be
the concern along with lightning. As this system exits Friday
evening, we begin a period of dry weather. Isolated areas of near-
Red Flag conditions will occur on Friday (west of the Rio Grande
River), and Saturday and Sunday (area-wide), as 20 ft winds approach
14 - 18 mph. Expect much of the same as we start the work week.
Temps will be seasonal to a little above average most afternoons,
with excellent ventilation after Wednesday.

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 61  93  68  91 /   0  10  10  20
Sierra Blanca           56  86  62  86 /   0  10  10  30
Las Cruces              57  93  63  89 /   0  10  10  20
Alamogordo              52  90  62  90 /   0  10  10  10
Cloudcroft              41  65  42  66 /   0  20  20  30
Truth or Consequences   55  90  60  90 /   0  10  10  10
Silver City             51  84  51  82 /   0  10  10  10
Deming                  54  92  59  92 /   0  10  10  10
Lordsburg               52  92  59  90 /   0  10  10   0
West El Paso Metro      61  93  67  92 /   0  10  10  20
Dell City               50  89  60  89 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Hancock            56  93  64  93 /   0  10  10  30
Loma Linda              54  85  60  85 /   0  10  10  20
Fabens                  58  94  65  93 /   0  10  10  20
Santa Teresa            58  91  64  90 /   0  10  10  20
White Sands HQ          61  90  65  89 /   0  10  10  10
Jornada Range           53  89  56  89 /   0  10  10  10
Hatch                   55  92  59  91 /   0  10  10  10
Columbus                56  92  61  92 /   0  10  10  10
Orogrande               56  89  59  89 /   0  10  10  10
Mayhill                 45  74  48  78 /   0  10  20  30
Mescalero               44  77  47  77 /   0  20  20  30
Timberon                39  74  44  75 /   0  20  20  20
Winston                 41  82  46  83 /   0  10  20  10
Hillsboro               52  87  56  87 /   0  10  20  10
Spaceport               51  89  57  88 /   0  10  10  10
Lake Roberts            40  85  43  83 /   0  20  20  10
Hurley                  46  87  51  85 /   0  10  10  10
Cliff                   44  94  44  88 /   0  20  20   0
Mule Creek              42  88  38  85 /   0  20  20   0
Faywood                 53  86  54  85 /   0  10  10  10
Animas                  52  93  58  91 /   0  10  10   0
Hachita                 53  92  58  90 /   0  10  10   0
Antelope Wells          53  92  57  90 /   0  10  10   0
Cloverdale              51  88  54  85 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

33/17/26/29