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000
FXUS63 KFGF 060809
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
309 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021

The evening showers have moved out of the area and disipating over
west central MN west near Morris. Skies clear over the area with
temperatures ihn the mid 20s to 30s. For today, there will be a
500 mb short wave which is in the Flin Flon MB area area 07z
dropping SE toward International Falls by 00z. A cold front will
drop south with it and enter the northern fcst area mid aftn and
exit the south early evening. Out ahead of the front will be a
west-northwest wind which will get gusty as we head into the
midday and afternoon as soundings indicate a very dry and well
mixed layer up thru 700 mb. Wind speeds look to run just shy of
wind advisory range, 20-30 mph and gusts 35-40 mph at times. In
this airmass just ahead of the cold front temperatures are
expected to warm into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Dew pts will also
run low 18 to 24 in the warmth of the day, and at the looks of the
sounding it could be lower. Min RH values are in the 20 percent
range across the fcst and with gusty WNW winds and a shift to the
north as the front works south later in the day a critical fire
weather day is ahead and all offices around us updgraded to red
flag warning. SPC has much of the area in elevated fire weather
risk.

There is a band of mid level moisture around 600-700 mb
ahead of the front and this will move through and will also
maintain a slight chance for a shower (more sprinkles if anything)
ahead of it.

Winds to diminish tonight and widespread lows in the mid to upper
20s. North wind on Friday but less in speed 15-20 mph and a tad
higher RH as temps are cooler. Thus no critical fire weather day
expected.


.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021


Mostly quiet weather is expected across the long term period, aside
from some possible light precipitation across far western portions
of the forecast area this weekend. Otherwise, a gradual warming
trend looks likely heading into next week with temperatures climbing
back up toward normal values, with some above normal temperatures
possible by midweek. Further impacts will then stem from
occasionally elevated fire weather potential as much of the region
looks to remain dry for the foreseeable future.

Synoptically, a pseudo blocking pattern over the northern Plains
should dominate the upper levels through the weekend and into the
early week. To the east, an upper low looks to continue to churn
over the Hudson Bay area, while further west, an upper low will
traverse the Pacific Northwest and close off as it approaches the
Rockies. While a shortwave is expected to eject out of the Rockies
as a result, the blocking pattern will keep the bulk of
precipitation potential west of the forecast area, although some
light rain cannot be completely ruled out for extreme western
portions of the forecast area this weekend. Precipitation aside,
below normal temperatures in the 50s will persist through the
weekend due to the slight weakening of the ridge as the ejecting
shortwave passes. Ensemble guidance indicates the strengthening of
the ridge aloft as high pressure builds in at the surface as well.
Quieter weather with temperatures warming back up toward normal will
be the result. With warming temperatures and generally dry
conditions comes the potential for occasionally elevated fire
weather conditions, especially on windier days.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period, however
pockets of ground fog can`t be ruled out through early Thursday
morning. Confidence in impacts at terminals is low. Winds increase
from the northwest Thursday and eventually decrease again Thursday
evening from the north-northeast. Peak gusts Thursday afternoon
behind the cold front will range from 25 to 30kt with strongest
gusts in ND. A few showers can`t be ruled out with this front, but
confidence was too low at this time for TAFs.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021

Fire weather watch will be upgraded to red flag warning for this
afternoon and early evening. WNW winds will become strong/gusty
midday and afternoon out ahead of a southward moving cold front.
Sounding profiles in the RRV and E ND indicate well mixed layer up
thru 700 mb which will support wind gusts 35-40 mph along with low
relative humidity values. Will maintain idea of min RH around 20
percent, but some areas may drop to 15 pct. Wind shift to the
north mid afternoon north to early evening south. Just ahead of
the front will be some elevated light showers/sprinkles.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

$$

SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...Rick
AVIATION...DJR
FIRE WEATHER...Riddle