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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
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FXUS61 KGYX 060656
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
256 AM EDT Thu May 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and breezy conditions are expected today in the wake of a
departing system with chilly conditions continuing on Friday.
Low pressure will pass well south and east of New England over
the weekend. Another area of low pressure will cross southern
New England on Monday. An upper level low will then cross the
region Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Low pressure south of Nova Scotia will continue to pull away from
the area this morning with northwest to west winds picking up in its
wake. There will be lingering rain and snow showers in the mountains
this morning with skies becoming mostly sunny downstream of the
mountains. The best wind potential will come just after sunrise with
gusts 25 to 30 mph for the first part of the morning. It will remain
breezy throughout the day with gust potential trending downwards
this afternoon as the gradient over the area relaxes. Highs today
will range from the 40s north to 50s south of the mountains with
areas closer to the coast approaching the low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Tonight a weak area of high pressure crosses the area. Skies will be
mostly clear and light winds allowing for some radiational cooling.
Have incorporated MOS guidance into overnight lows which brings
northern valleys into the 20s and good radiating spots into the
mid 30s south. Coastal zones look to drop to the upper 30s to
near 40. These temperatures will be close for frost conditions
but not quite cool enough and will monitor as the frost program
has been activated for coastal zones.

Fair and cool weather is expected Friday as an upper level
trough remains to our west and low pressure forms well to our
south off the Carolina coast. Highs will generally be in the 50s
to low 60s with cooler conditions near the coast with an onshore
breeze.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z operational and ensemble model solutions continue to
diverge with the upcoming offshore system this weekend. The GFS
remains the outlier with upper level support bringing a well
defined and intensifying system well east of our waters during
this period. Even with this solution, the forecast area will
remain relatively dry. Prefer the European and Canadian
solutions which keep a less defined system over the open
Atlantic.

In any case, with an upper level low pressure system over the
Northeast, we can expect a chance of showers beginning late
Saturday and continuing into Sunday. It will continue to remain
chilly with the coldest day on Saturday when temperatures will
remain in the 50s for highs.

Models are suggesting another area of low pressure will cross
southern New England on Monday. This will allow for chilly and
raw conditions as well as more showers across the region.

As this system departs, upslope conditions will begin over the
mountains where the high chance for precipitation will be.
Scattered rain showers may mix with or change to snow showers as
the freezing levels drop during the midweek time period.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...Some lingering MVFR/IFR expected through sunrise
with conditions quickly improving to VFR shortly after sunrise
as drier air arrives on NW winds gusting to 25 kts. NW winds
relax this afternoon with VFR expected through Friday.

Long Term...Generally VFR conditions expected with light winds
through the weekend and into next week. Afternoon showers will
be possible most days, although significant flight restrictions
are not expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Low pressure pulls away from the waters this
morning with a period of NW winds gusting 25 to 30 kts over the
southern waters and up to 25 kts closer to the Mid-Coast. Winds
relax some this afternoon will relatively quite conditions
through Friday.

Long Term...Low pressure will pass well east of the waters this
weekend. Winds and seas will remain below SCA thresholds
however. Another low will pass over the Gulf of Maine on Monday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to noon EDT today
     for ANZ154.

&&

$$
NEAR/SHORT TERM...Schroeter
LONG TERM...Cannon
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
