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000
FXUS63 KLBF 060905
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
405 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021

The main forecast challenges to end the work week revolve around
temperatures as an upper ridge spreads onto the Plains, then precip
chances for the weekend with the ridge breaking down and a surface
low moving through the Plains.

Today... Nebraska lies in northwest flow aloft with the amplified
upper ridge running up the Rockies and a deep upper low over Hudson
Bay with the trough extending into the Southeast US. At the surface,
high pressure settles right on top of the state before sliding
toward the Ozarks. Increased fgen around H5-6 and weak lift around
H7 shouldn`t do much more than spur some cumulus clouds today.
Forecast soundings suggest ample dry air below H7 within the deep
mixed layer. Some moisture exists in the mid levels as shown by some
narrow bands on radar this morning and WV content upstream in
Wyoming. Nevertheless, should be a partly/mostly sunny day with a
slight west/northwest breeze, especially with the surface high in
place and somewhat weak flow at H85. The one concern is a deeper
mixed layer than anticipated. The RAP hints at tapping into the
somewhat stronger flow above H7, which could result in gusts to 25
mph this afternoon. For max temps, went between the middle and
warmer end of guidance to account for weak WAA, downslope flow, and
bouts of sunshine. Forecast ranges from mid 60s north central to
lower 70s southwest.

Tonight... Fair conditions continue, along with light winds as
surface flow transitions from west to south. Looks to be a decent
set up for efficient boundary layer decoupling and surface cooling.
Lowered min temps a smidge, which places the northern panhandle in
the upper 30s and everywhere else right around 40F.

Friday... The upper ridge axis bisects the forecast area later in
the day as a couple surface lows line up on the lee of the Rockies.
Low level flow strengthens and turns southeast, resulting in
continued weak warm air advection but better moisture advection.
Despite upslope near the surface and broad isentropic upglide in the
mid levels (300-305K), it takes time for the moisture to pull into
the region. The stronger forcing, both at the surface with the lows
and cold front and aloft with the trough, is also delayed. Should be
more fair skies with low precip potential through 00z. In response,
blended in some warmer guidance, which takes the forecast pretty
close to the 50%ile NBM. Max temps range from upper 60s north
central to near 80 southwest. After 00z, some convective activity
associated with the lee side lows may spread into the panhandle and
eventually the Sandhills overnight. The low level jet may help
sustain showers/thunder until greater forcing and moisture
convergence occur on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021

By Saturday morning, one surface low should sit near the Black Hills
while the other reaches the eastern CO Plains or western KS. The
front drags through Nebraska during the day, when precip potential
is maximized. Kept the mention of thunder, but the severe threat
should be limited as MUCAPE tops out around 500 j/kg, mid level
lapse rates around 7C/km, and deep layer shear around 35-40 kts.
Some rain showers may linger into Sunday, but this activity would
more likely be derived from mid-level forcing. Max temps in the
lower/mid 50s would also keep thunder chances at bay. Precip
potential picks up again early next week as a broad upper trough
digs into the central CONUS and perhaps a closed low spins up over
the Dakotas. This pattern will also keep temperatures unseasonably
cool. Easterly flow at H85 under the cold trough will keep temps
steady around 2C, translating to highs in the lower/mid 50s for
Monday and Tuesday as well. Nighttime lows dip into the lower/mid
30s, but cloud cover with moisture chances should keep any frost
localized.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Isolated
light showers early this morning will traverse northwest to
southeast, but are not expected to bring impacts to any of the
terminals. West-northwesterly gusty winds will develop this
afternoon with diurnal cumulus, with both expected to dissipate by
the evening hours with veering winds becoming more easterly by the
end of the period.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Snively
LONG TERM...Snively
AVIATION...NMJ