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000
FXUS64 KLCH 060833
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
333 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows a trough acrs much of the
CONUS east of the Rockies, with ridging over the Intermountain
West. Between these features, a shortwave is diving southeast
acrs the cntl plains. The airmass over the region remains quite
dry in the wake of Tuesday`s system, with 00Z KLCH sounding
showing precip water near 0.7 inches. Recent GOES TPW and LAPS
Layer PW analysis shows that value has since dropped to around 0.6
inches early this morning.

At the sfc, the cold front that moved through on Tuesday has made
some progress further offshore, and while considerable cloud cover
remains along and behind the boundary, KLCH radar is free of any
precip echoes this morning. Otherwise, mostly clr skies are
noted over land areas, with light to near calm winds. These
conditions are facilitating cooling, with temperatures in the
middle 50s to around 60 acrs all but the coastal areas.

24

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday night)...

The aforementioned shortwave will continue to dig southeastward
toward the lower MS Valley today, carving a more amplified trough
over the eastern CONUS. Deeper northwesterly flow aloft will bring
reinforcing sfc high pres (over the Dakotas early this morning)
into the region, pushing the lingering sfc boundary further away
from the area. This secondary shot of dry air and subsidence will
provide exceptional conditions for sunny skies and continued low
relative humidity values, which in turn should allow for a diurnal
temperature range of about 25 degrees. After a cool morning,
temperatures should rebound to near or just abv 80 degrees this
aftn. Another night of clear skies and light winds will again
promote ideal radiational conditions, with overnight lows again
falling back into the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.

Dry and pleasant conditions will continue into Friday as the sfc
high settles over the lower MS Valley. The amplified pattern aloft
will begin to break down and transition more zonal Friday night
into Saturday, shifting the sfc high further east. Winds will
become southeasterly overnight, tempering overnight cooling acrs
the southern zones, as low level moisture gradually returns over
the region. Further north, the airmass should remain dry enough to
provide for one more night of cool temperatures.

24

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
High pressure across the southern states will shift off to the
east and into southern Georgia by Saturday. During this time a
developing area of low pressure over the eastern slopes of the
rockies will move into Oklahoma/Kansas. 850 developing low looks
to be vertically stack with a diffluent jet at 300 attm.

Down into our region, looking at weak ridging aloft Saturday
which will hold precip in check. Afternoon temps in the low 80s.
But we are in a progressive weather pattern. This will see the
surface low into eastern Kansas and Oklahoma now with a secondary
low east of Midland Tx in west Texas. Look for rains late on
Sunday moving down from the north and gradually making it the
coast. Storms will move to the northeast. This first round of
storms does not look to bring heavy showers as most of the
activity will be overrunning.

Towards Monday afternoon the front is into the coastal waters as
moisture rides up and over the front. Afternoon temps look to range
in the mid to upper 80s. Tuesday will see a gradual increase in
storm activity with the heaviest rains expected across central
Louisiana into eastern Texas. Temps over the region will also taper
off to 30 yr climo by Wed most lctns as a secondary surge of cooler
air fm the north makes it way in. As the pattern is expected to
slowly evolve... rains will continue off and on Wednesday and
Thursday. Rainfall totals from Sunday through Thursday will range
around two inches in e-cntrl Tx and acrs cntrl La w/ around an inch
down along the coast.

19

&&

.MARINE...
Northeast winds will continue over the coastal waters, with a
brief uptick in speeds possible as a secondary surge of high pres
builds south into the area. No flags are anticipated however as
conditions should remain below exercise caution criteria.

Lt to modt northeast winds will persist through Friday as the sfc
high settles over the lower MS Valley. Winds will quickly veer
back to the southeast Friday night into Saturday as the high
moves east of the region. Winds will strengthen late Saturday into
Sunday as low pres develops over the southern plains, and this may
require issuance of a Small Craft Advisory.

Rain chcs will increase through the early part of the week as a
front slowly moves southward toward the coast. This will allow
winds to diminish, although an onshore flow is expected to
continue through midweek.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  80  56  80  58 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  84  61  84  64 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  81  58  82  60 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  84  59  84  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$