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000
FXUS62 KMFL 060645
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
245 AM EDT Thu May 6 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)

The weather pattern changes today as a mid to upper level trough
pushes into the eastern portion of the country which will flatten
out the ridge that has been in place over the past several days. At
the surface, a cold front will continue to move closer to the region
as the day progresses. This will cause the winds to shift to a south
to southwesterly direction across the region. At the same time,
there will be plenty of diurnal heating taking place allowing the
east and west coast sea breezes to develop and push inland. All of
this in combination with each other will enhance the instability
across the region allowing showers and thunderstorms to develop
mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. As the day progresses
500 mb temps will be cooling down to between -8 and -9C and CAPE
values will increase to around 1500 J/KG. With this enhanced
instability in place, some of the storms could become strong to
severe especially over the interior and east coast metro areas. The
strongest storms this afternoon could contain strong wind gusts,
hail, and heavy downpours. With the potential for training
thunderstorms over portions of the east coast metro areas later this
afternoon, there will also be the possibility for localized flooding
in these areas.

With the loss of daytime heating, Shower and thunderstorm activity
will begin to diminsh across the region as the evening progresses
and the cold front will continue to slowly push southward through
the region. This cold front will be slowing down as it moves
through, therefore it could linger across the area on Friday. There
will be enough lower level moisture in place combined with the
development of the east coast sea breeze to support an additional
round of showers and thunderstorms as Friday progresses. The
greatest chances of showers and thunderstorms will be located across
the east coast metro areas. A strong thunderstorm or two cannot be
ruled out along the east coast metro areas in the afternoon as the
sea breeze boundary develops and moves inland. Highs on Friday will
generally range from the upper 80s to lower 90s across most of South
Florida.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Wednesday)

As the upper-level trough propagates eastwards into the North
Atlantic, the accompanying surface frontal boundary will continue to
move away from our area. Although the trough is in the process of
departing the region, it will still exert some influence over our
synoptic-scale weather pattern over the next few days. These colder
values aloft associated with the trough will allow for drier
northwesterly flow to advect into the region in the middle to upper
levels. At the same time, the boundary layer will remain moist due
to onshore flow advecting surges of low-level moisture. The
combination of these two factors will allow for relatively cooler
temperatures across the east coast metro areas with little relief
for the interior areas of Southwest Florida for the weekend.
Although the mid to upper atmosphere will be relatively dry during
this period, the moist boundary layer will support shallow
convection in the form of shower activity. As this convection will
be shallow in nature due to the capping mechanism of the dry air
above, convection will likely be in the form of showers with
potentially an isolated Thunderstorm or two.

By early next week, upper level flow becomes zonal with enhanced
westerlies aloft. A ridge of high pressure that develops in the Gulf
of Mexico begins to move eastwards into our area. Subsidence and
increasing pressure heights with the building ridge aloft will act
to lessen winds and reduce the moderation of temperatures along the
east coast. As the ridge of high pressure remains in place over the
region, the solar angle combined with ample solar radiation will
allow for a notable warming trend across the region. Maximum
temperatures will approach 90 degrees by early next week, with heat
indices over 100 across interior portions of Southwest Florida by
mid-week. Although, if mixing occurs, drier air aloft will
mitigate the higher heat index values a bit.

Towards the end of the extended forecast period, a stalled
frontal boundary is oriented west to east across the northern Gulf
of Mexico. The persistent ridge of high pressure over our area
will prevent any significant advancement of this feature into our
area until after the current extended forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the rest of the overnight
hours and into Thursday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will develop on Thursday afternoon out ahead of an approaching cold
front. The greatest chances of thunderstorms will be across the east
coast terminals later this afternoon and into this evening. Periods
of MVFR or even IFR are possible across the east coast terminals
this afternoon and in around showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will shift to a more south
to southwesterly direction today out ahead of an approaching cold
front. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase by
this afternoon especially across the Atlantic waters and some could
be strong to severe into the evening. Behind the front, winds will
gradually shift around to the east northeast later in the day on
Friday and into the upcoming weekend with possible cautionary
conditions at times across the Atlantic and Gulf waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            90  75  89  72 /  50  40  30  10
West Kendall     90  73  90  69 /  50  30  30  10
Opa-Locka        90  75  89  70 /  50  40  30  10
Homestead        88  73  89  70 /  40  30  30  10
Fort Lauderdale  88  74  87  73 /  50  40  30  10
N Ft Lauderdale  89  73  88  72 /  50  40  30  10
Pembroke Pines   90  74  89  70 /  50  40  30  10
West Palm Beach  90  71  87  69 /  60  50  30  10
Boca Raton       88  72  87  70 /  50  40  30  10
Naples           88  73  87  65 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Today through Friday and Aviation/Marine...CWC
Friday Night through Wednesday...Hadi

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