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000
FXUS62 KMHX 060717
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
317 AM EDT Thu May 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to push south and stall today as
high pressure builds across the north. The high will weaken
tonight as weak low pressure develops off the coast. The low
will lift northeast offshore of the coast Friday. High pressure
will build across this weekend with another frontal system
expected early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 240 AM Thu...Cold front will cont to push S of the region
and stall today as high pres quickly builds across the N. Any
lingering post frontal shra shld be moving off the coast by
around daybreak with dry conditions rest of the day. Periods of
bkn clouds expected thru the day with highs 60s OBX and NE tier
to lower 70s elsewhere. N winds will be gusty coast thru mid
morn then diminish.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Thu...High pres weakens with weak low pres
developing off the coast late as short wave approaches from the
W. Moisture will grad increase espcly inland and S and mdls
show sct shra grad developing. Coverage is uncertain as many
high res mdls and NAM show very little precip while GFS and
ECMWF show decent cvrg...for now show chc most areas late with
slight chc NE tier. Clouds will increase with lows mostly 50s,
NE tier could see some upr 40s with potential for less clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 305 AM Thu...Low pressure is expected to develop off the
coast tomorrow and bring wet conditions to close out the work
week. The weekend appears dry before the next frontal system
impacts the area Monday through the rest of the period.

Friday...Lobe of upper energy is expected to pivot around a
quasi- stationary low centered over the Hudson Bay late Thursday
into Friday morning, helping to spur development of a coastal
low off the Carolina coastline. Hi-res guidance in better
agreement a band of showers and a few thunderstorms will develop
along a surface trough extending westward from the low. QPF
amounts could reach up to a half inch with higher amounts in any
convection that manages to form. Did knock highs down a couple
degrees with abundant cloud cover expected to start the day and
be slow to clear. Highs will struggle to reach 70. Clearing
skies overnight and CAA behind the departing low point to
abnormally cool lows in the mid 40s.

Saturday and Sunday...High pressure builds in from the southwest
for the weekend ushering in dry and moderating conditions.
Temperatures climb into the low to mid 70s Saturday, followed by
upper 70s to low 80s by Sunday with increasing southwesterly
flow. With approach of next front late Sunday winds will
increase overnight Sunday with breezy conditions forecast for
OBX.

Monday through Wednesday...Guidance in reasonable agreement next
front will approach the Carolinas Monday morning and cross the
CWA late in the day, bringing an increased chance of showers and
storms. Hesitant to introduce likely PoPs at this point as
frontal passage timing has varied a bit from run to run. For
now, will keep high-end chance mention. Front stalls over the
Gulf States Tue-Wed with weak high pressure attempting to build
in from the north before another wave of low pressure develops
along the boundary midweek bringing a renewed chance for
precipitation.

Highs Monday will be the highest of the long term reaching into
the mid 80s, before falling back into the low 70s for the
remainder of the week with lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 1220 AM Thu...Pred VFR conditions expected through this
TAF period. Lingering shra may lead to a sub VFR cigs at PGV
next cpl hrs but majority of sites will see no precip and
higher based cigs. Cold front will push S of taf sites next cpl
hrs with period of gusty N winds. High pres quickly builds
across the N today with PC skies and diminishing winds. Weak
low pres will begin to develop off the coast tonight as short
wave approaches. Clouds will increase with some spotty shra
developing but for now looks like cigs will remain in VFR
range.

LONG TERM /Fri through Monday/...
As of 305 AM Thu...Coastal low develops off the coast Friday
bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions with shower and
thunderstorm activity. High pressure builds back for the weekend
and early next week with VFR conditions returning.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/...
As of 1220 AM Thu...Gusty N winds will cont thru mid morning
behind cold front with SCA cont into the morn for all but wrn
rivers. Winds diminish quickly today as high pres builds across
the N. Seas will reach 4 to 6 ft this morning highest outer
central wtrs then subside back to 2 to 4 ft this aftn. NE to
ENE winds 10 to 15 kts tonight as weak low begins to develop to
the SE. Seas cont 2 to 4 ft.

LONG TERM /Fri through Monday/...
As of 315 AM Thu...Tough marine forecast for Friday in regards
to coastal low developing off the coast and lifting north of the
area overnight. Hi-res and global guidance alike are split on
the intensity of a NW surge behind the low, with GFS/NAM/ARW
well on the high side but ECMWF/CMC/NMM more muted. The Euro
ends up being a happy medium between all guidance and leaned the
forecast heavily in its direction. This results in a forecast
for SCA to develop across the southern and central waters late
Friday, spreading across all waters by Saturday morning with
winds 20-25 kt. The window will be small and expect seas to
build to predominantly 3-5 feet, although a few 6 footers are
possible well offshore.

High pressure builds south of the waters Saturday and Sunday
with improving conditions, with next potential concern being
late Sunday and Monday as southwesterly winds increase ahead of
an approaching cold front. Winds increase to 20-25 kt for
coastal waters and Pamlico Sound, aiding in seas surging to a
peak of 6-8 feet.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for AMZ135-
     150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for AMZ131-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...RF/MS
MARINE...RF/MS