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000
FXUS64 KMOB 060856
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
356 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Friday/...A drier northwesterly flow
pattern aloft returns across our region through Friday as a trough
deepens over the eastern CONUS and as ridging builds over the Rocky
Mountains and adjacent Plains. At the surface, a cold front has
departed to our southeast, with drier air beginning to filter into
the region. Showers and storms have come to an end over land areas,
but chances remain possible over the Gulf waters through this
morning. A brief period of high pressure will build over the region
Thursday before another cold front, albeit dry, moves over the
southeastern CONUS on Friday. Again, not much moisture will be
associated with this feature by the time it reaches the Deep South,
with model PWATs shown to be merely between 0.6-0.8 inches along and
ahead of it. Perhaps some high clouds will stream over our
northwestern zones early Friday; but, in general, a clear, dry day
is expected for most of the day.

High temperatures today will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s,
followed by lows tonight in the lower to mid 50s inland and upper
50s to around 60 degrees near the coast. Highs Friday will then be a
touch cooler with the passage of the dry, cold front. Temperatures
in the mid to upper 70s are anticipated. Lastly, a HIGH RISK of rip
currents remains in effect through tonight. This will then be
followed by a MODERATE RISK Friday and Friday night. 26/21

&&

.SHORT TERM /Friday night Through Saturday night/...The weather to
open up the weekend continues nice as dry air filters into the
region behind a departing long-wave upper trof moving eastward
across the southeast and off the Mid-Atlantic coast. With surface
high pressure axis over the heart of the forecast area Friday
night, mostly clear skies and light winds, a cool night with lows
dipping down into the lower to mid 50s is expected. Well below
normal by several degrees for early May standards. The high
slides eastward Saturday, allowing for a gradual return flow.
Highs on Saturday modify a category and not too far off seasonal
means, lifting into the lower to mid 80s interior. Numbers range
from 74 to 79 coast. Trending warmer Saturday night as dewpoints
rise. /10


&&

.EXTENDED TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...Zonal flow aloft will
persist over the region through the period as one shortwave over the
western CONUS digs south and amplifies, with another shortwave
digging south toward the Great Lakes and northeast CONUS. However, a
series of embedded weak shortwaves and impulses will traverse the
region through the period.

At the surface, with the high pressure well out over the Atlantic,
return flow develops on the backside of a surface ridge that
weakens going further into the extended. A low pressure system,
over the central CONUS, quickly shoots east across the eastern
CONUS on Sunday into Monday with an associated weak cold front
moving into the area from the northwest on Monday and stalling.
PWATs over the area increase quickly to between 1.5 to 1.9 inches
going through the extended period.

A slight chance to chance of showers and thunderstorms looks to
spread eastward across the western portions of the forecast area
as early as Sunday evening, with perhaps a likely chance entering our
far interior southeast MS zones by late evening. After
coordination with neighbors and given the apparent slower eastward
progression of showers and thunderstorms, appears chances of wet
weather over the eastern zones will come later in the night.
Coverage to increase to likely area-wide on Monday, followed by
scattered to likely PoPs on Tuesday. Locally heavy rainfall is
possible during the daytime hours both days. With loss of daytime
heating, only expect a slight chance to chance of showers and
thunderstorms Monday night. Through the rest of the extended,
models begin to differ with how the systems over the northern half
of the CONUS evolve with this. For now, maintained chance PoPs
through the rest of the period. As of now, no severe weather is
expected.

As far as temps, Sunday is expected to be the warmest with mostly
low to upper 80s across the region for daytime highs. Daytime highs
through the rest of the period remain generally in the upper 70s to
mid 80s across the area. Low temps through the period generally
remain in the low to mid 60s for areas northwest of I-65, and mid to
upper 60s elsewhere, except along the immediate coast where lows
will be in the lower 70s. /10/22


&&

.MARINE...High pressure is building into the north central Gulf
Coast region early this morning behind a cold front that has pushed
offshore. Northerly winds will continue to increase to exercise
caution thresholds over the offshore waters as well as across Mobile
Bay and the Mississippi Sound early this morning behind the front. A
few showers and storms will be possible through the morning,
especially beyond 20 NM out, before dry weather returns this
afternoon. A lighter offshore flow returns later this morning into
the afternoon and evening before northerly winds pick up again late
tonight/early Friday morning, with exercise caution headlines again
needed over the same areas. A light to moderate easterly to
southeasterly flow returns Saturday, followed by increasing
southerly flow Saturday night into Sunday. /21

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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