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000
FXUS63 KMPX 060405
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1105 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021

.UPDATE...For 06Z Aviation discussion below

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021

A busy short term period lies ahead. Rain is overspreading southern
Minnesota this afternoon with more scattered coverage across central
Minnesota. It will eventually reach west central WI by evening,
mainly along and south of I-94. The wetbulbing effect in southwestern
MN due to the rain is rather impressive. Readings have dropped into
the lower 40s with even some upper 30s. These numbers are quite a bit
below guidance, so we`re starting cold already.

The rain will exit to the southeast later this evening and clearing
will take place soon thereafter. By late tonight it should be clear
over much of the area while winds decouple. Temperatures will drop
into the low to mid 30s, but given that we`re already in the low to
mid 40s, it could drop even more than that. The recent moisture from
today and near freezing temperatures should create a heavy frost. A
Frost Advisory is in effect for portions of central MN and west
central WI late tonight. It may need to be expanded south if it
becomes evident clouds will clear those areas and temperatures will
drop to levels that support frost.

Strengthening northwest winds and drier air will move in late
Thursday morning. Like last Saturday, forecast soundings are rather
impressive with a deep inverted-V sounding. There is a high potential
for very low humidities, possibly less than 15 percent again for
portions of far western MN. In addition, wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph
are possible within the deeply mixed boundary layer. A Fire Weather
Watch has been issued for central and western MN. Southern MN has
greened up quite a bit and the better rain totals from today should
limit the fire weather threat there.

Steep mid level lapse rates above the LFC may contribute to 200-400
J/kg CAPE late afternoon and evening before the boundary layer
stabilizes. This may be enough to generate a few thunderstorms with
a short wave descending south from Manitoba. Any of these high based
storms may generate some dry microbursts with the inverted-V
soundings and the already gusty gradient winds.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021

Temperatures continue to remain rather consistent this period with a
chance for a warm up in the later part of next week when we might
see a change in the pattern. As the temperature normals continue to
warm up though, our daily temps will become more and more below
normal. Using MSP as an example, the Friday, May 7 normal high is 66
and the normal low is 47. Then by the middle of next week the normal
high is 68 and the normal low is 49. So max temperatures in the
upper 50s to low 60s with minimum temperatures in the 30s to low
40s is increasing below normal. In the later part of next week some
ensemble guidance like the GEFS show a warming trend, but still have
a wide envelope between maintaining these seasonably cooler
temperatures and warming up to near normal. To increase confidence
in the warmer direction though there is a warming trend mid to late
next week within NBM deterministic and probabilistic guidance.

Despite the relative consistency on the temperature front it looks
more variable on the precipitation front. Surface high pressure
moving in Friday will lead to a pretty nice day with little chance
for precipitation, but areas with clear skies in the early morning
could see some frost. There should be enough moisture ahead of a
frontal system moving across the central plains for some rain
showers to make it into parts of southern and western Minnesota on
Saturday. Drier air and higher pressure will lead to decreasing PoPs
as you head farther north and east. Also as noted in previous
discussions the trend in model guidance has been downward so even
southern and western Minnesota chances for rain showers are not
high. Sunday into Tuesday should have little PoP under the influence
of a surface high that moves in from Canada. The advance of an upper
level trough around the middle of next week should break up this
pattern and could give us our next chance of precipitation. However
spread within ensemble guidance remains high such that it is hard to
have much confidence in a forecast of accumulating rainfall yet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021

Low-end VFR clouds will linger from southern MN into west central WI
at TAF onset, then gradually shift southeast overnight. Meanwhile a
broken deck of mid-level clouds over northwest MN will sag southeast
overnight, so it won`t be an entirely clear night for most areas.
More mid-level (VFR) clouds develop mid-day Thursday, with a
potential for the development of a few showers and thunderstorms on
Thursday afternoon. Coverage/confidence are still too low to include
a mention in the TAF at this time. Variable winds to light northwest
winds overnight, with speeds increasing to 15G25 knots for Thursday
afternoon.

KMSP...
VFR conditions are expected, with occasional mid-level clouds.
Breezy winds with gusts to 25 knots develop for Thursday afternoon.
Can`t rule out a few afternoon showers and even a thunderstorm on
Thursday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...VFR. Wind NW 10-12 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.
Sun...VFR. Wind NE 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Thursday for Anoka-Brown-
     Carver-Chippewa-Dakota-Goodhue-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le
     Sueur-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-
     Sibley-Washington-Wright-Yellow Medicine.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening
     for Benton-Chippewa-Douglas-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui
     Parle-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Pope-Renville-
     Sherburne-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Wright-Yellow Medicine.

WI...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Thursday for Chippewa-Dunn-Eau
     Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Borghoff
LONG TERM...NDC
AVIATION...LS