National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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FXUS63 KOAX 060926
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
426 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021

...Updated Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 420 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021

NOW...

Perceptibly warmer this morning with only a few 30s dotting the
map when the freezing mark had made a few appearances by this time
24 hours ago. The dewpoint is also noticeably higher and some
haze has developed along the Missouri River. Showers have pushed
well east of the area and we`re anticipating a dry day today.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

Low stratus working behind the surface low is primarily affecting
western Iowa and areas along the Missouri River. SREF shows this
deck east of the area by sunrise. Surface high meandering into the
state will keep skies clear. Northwestern winds will relax
after dark tonight as the high passes west to east and return
flow develops by Friday morning. Tonight`s lows will be cool
under the stars and quiet winds, but frost seems unlikely from
this vantage point.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.

Quiet winds and mostly sunny skies will lead to a pleasant day
with temps sneaking near 70F.

Saturday will be breezy.

The big weather story is the chances for rain this weekend. GFS
still keeps some significant rain over the northern portions of
the CWA, but the EC ensemble and most global deterministic runs
have continued to sag the significant QPF further south over
subsequent runs. Heaviest rain now likely over the southern
portions of the area where the baroclinic zone sets up. Saturday`s
highs will be in the 50s and 60s with some 80s just over the
Kansas state line. Severe hazards likely limited to the surface
low`s warm sector in Kansas, but broad synoptic lift may produce
some QPF totals of half an inch or more for much of this area and
- where PWAT`s approach 2" along the Kansas state line - even
  more.

WPC has painted a "slight" chance of excessive rainfall for SE
Nebraska, but we`re on the periphery. The threat being three days
out leaves plenty of room for this area to be shifted north or
south, or just plain erased. Rain shield will shift from NW to the
SE through Saturday afternoon and evening. Chances will linger
Sunday morning as well. Both days could offer chances to get
outdoors to those watching the forecast and WSR-88D returns. Plan
on needing a jacket with highs peaking near 60 each afternoon.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...

Upper low`s passage to our south early next week could produce
some scattered showers, but chances are better west and south of
this part of the CONUS. Temps will be cool then with a gradual
improvement progged for the second half of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021

The main aviation concern over the next 24 hours is the potential
for MVFR ceilings (bases 1,000 to 2,500 ft AGL) between 07Z and
14Z Thursday. MVFR ceilings are most likely over western Iowa and
along the Missouri River Valley, and these ceilings may affect
KOMA for a period of time. Otherwise, unrestricted visibility,
fair skies and light north winds should prevail through 06Z
Friday.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Albright
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
