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000
FXUS64 KOHX 060728
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
228 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Clear skies, light winds, and relatively low dew point
depressions have led to some fog development this morning,
especially near bodies of water. Fog will dissipate shortly after
sunrise as additional mixing begins to occur. Deepening upper-
level trough along with a surface frontal boundary coming from our
northwest will allow clouds to slowly begin to increase through
the day. Should make it through a good bit of the day before rain
chances slowly begin to creep up this afternoon into the evening.
Will have some destabilization especially in our western third of
the area which could spell some strong to severe storms. Lapse
rates and shear are conducive for some damaging winds and small
hail to develop. T`storms will begin to move into our northwestern
counties towards the late afternoon to early evening with the
line racing eastward thereafter. Luckily, the line should begin to
weaken as it moves eastward into more stable air.

Friday looks pretty fantastic if you ask me. Highs in the 60s to
near 70, sunny skies, and not humid; I`m not sure what more you
could ask for. Warm front will begin to lift northward through
the area on Saturday allowing for additional moisture and slightly
warmer temps to move back in. Saturday doesn`t look to be a
complete washout, but probably will have some off and on scattered
showers and a few t`storms through a decent portion of the day.
Sunday into Monday and frontal boundary will push towards Middle
TN once again upping the shower and t`storm chances throughout the
area. Looks like a slightly slower progression of the front
compared to previous model runs, but do expect more precipitation
with this round. Model soundings are still somewhat conducive to
support some strong to severe storms Sunday night into Monday, so
will need to continue keeping an eye on this over the next few
days.

Sharp temperature gradient will develop across the area on
Saturday as the warm front lifts northward. Temps will likely span
from near 70 to the south to near 60 to the north. Sunday will be
much warmer with highs in the mid to upper 70s across the area.
Frontal boundary will pass through on Monday allowing temps to
dip back into the 60s for our highs. By the middle of next week,
models do begin to diverge so have slight chance to chance pops
for the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR conditions currently at all terminals. Expecting a brief drop
in VIS overnight, mainly at CSV between 09Z and 12Z. Otherwise,
increasing cloudiness through the day ahead of a line of -TSRA/-RA
that will move through in the afternoon to early evening. Could
experience some brief impacts to terminals as the line moves
through. Should arrive to CKV after 21Z and remaining terminals
thereafter. Winds will remain around 5 to 10 kts and become more
W/NW by the afternoon.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      69  46  68  50  66 /  40  40   0   0  40
Clarksville    69  45  68  49  63 /  60  40   0  10  50
Crossville     65  42  61  43  60 /  10  30   0   0  40
Columbia       71  45  69  49  68 /  30  40   0   0  40
Lawrenceburg   70  45  68  48  68 /  30  30   0   0  30
Waverly        71  45  69  50  66 /  60  30   0  10  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Adcock
AVIATION........Adcock