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000
FXUS64 KOUN 060344
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1044 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 736 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021

Reduced PoPS and removed most of the thunder for the overnight
forecast. Radar observations are trending downward, and most of
the area appears stable making thunder overnight unlikely. CAMs
continue to show a few isolated to scattered showers developing
overnight (reflected in the forecast by low PoPs). Any rainfall
amounts should be light.

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021

Showers and a few storms have already formed over east central
Colorado and parts of western and northern Kansas early this
afternoon.  This activity is expected to move into at least
northwest Oklahoma after 6 pm. Limited instability should keep
most thunderstorm below severe levels, but a few storms may
produce hail near quarter size along with gusty winds. This will
mainly be true across far northwest Oklahoma. During the evening
and overnight, showers and a few storms should continue to move
south and east into central Oklahoma, perhaps parts of southern
Oklahoma. Ridging to our west will build eastward which will bring
nice weather for Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021

There will be another chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday
morning with some isentropic ascent (especially across northern
Oklahoma). A remnant complex of thunderstorms may also affect
parts of northern/western Oklahoma Friday night from the
northwest.

By Saturday, an embedded shortwave trough will approach the
Central Plains. As the trough approaches, a surface cyclone will
intensify near the Oklahoma/Kansas border. The increasing surface
pressure gradient will result in breezy southerly winds. By
afternoon, as vertical mixing increases, the attendant dryline is
forecast to mix east of the 100th meridian. Hot temperatures are
expected west of the dryline with 850 mb temperatures progged to
be >25 deg C. Temperatures in the 90s to near 100 deg F are
possible and elevated fire weather conditions may develop in this
area.

East of the dryline, instability and shear will be sufficient for
strong to severe thunderstorms. However, a capping inversion may
limit the spatial extent of convection. Currently, it appears the
greatest ascent to prime the environment (e.g., sufficiently lift
the capping inversion) for convection will be across Kansas and
north central Oklahoma. Nevertheless, opted to expand the chance
for showers/storms a little farther south than the model QPFs
given the uncertainty.

A much cooler and drier airmass is expected in the cyclone`s wake
for Sunday with highs in the 70s deg F and breezy northerly
winds. The dry airmass will result in lows in the 40s and 50s deg
F by Monday morning.

For early to mid next week, occasional shortwave troughs are
progged to affect the Southern Plains. While the pattern looks
unsettled (e.g., periods of showers/storms are possible), it`s too
early to pick out if there is a given day that might have a
higher risk for severe weather (if at all).

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021

Other than small areas of showers over the northen half of
Oklahoma tonight, VFR conditions are expected otherwise with
light south turning north during the day tomorrow with the passage
of a weak front.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021

No Upper Air flight are planned at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  51  76  52  79 /  20  10   0  10
Hobart OK         53  80  53  84 /  30  10   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  53  80  54  84 /  10  10   0   0
Gage OK           47  76  51  87 /  50  10  10  10
Ponca City OK     47  73  48  75 /  20   0   0  30
Durant OK         53  79  53  79 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...09