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000
FXUS65 KREV 060047
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
547 PM PDT Wed May 5 2021

.UPDATE...

A few thunderstorms have developed late this afternoon over the
Sweetwater and White Mountains toward the southern edge of the
Pine Nut Range. Based on ground observations and webcams, it
doesn`t appear much, if any, precipitation is reaching the ground
from these storms. We have also seen at least one report of a new
fire start near Wellington. Additional new starts are possible
along with gusty and erratic outflow winds. Storms will remain
fairly isolated in coverage, pushing toward the east northeast
over the next couple hours. Most activity will wind down by 8-9 pm
tonight. -Dawn

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 254 PM PDT Wed May 5 2021/

SYNOPSIS...

Low pressure moving into the Pacific Northwest will bring stronger
winds Thursday along with isolated thunderstorms and blowing dust
well east of Highway 395. Lesser breezes arrive Friday and into the
weekend. Temperatures will cool to around average for Friday through
the weekend before edging upwards by Tuesday.

DISCUSSION...

Today will likely be the warmest day for most areas (aside from
west-central Nevada) with typical afternoon and evening zephyr winds.
The above average heating is bringing some cumulus development near
the Sierra, most significantly in far southwestern Mono County and
along and east of Highway 395 in Mono County where a few of the
cumulus have increased to a moderate depth so far this afternoon.
As we work into the late afternoon and early evening, moist
convection (fancy word for clouds) is expected to push into far
eastern Mono County and out into southern Lyon County and Mineral
County near/west of Highway 95. A very isolated shower or brief
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out but coverage would be quite scant
(less than 10% chance in any one spot).

On Thursday, a trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast.
As mentioned this morning, the trough will split somewhat on the
southern end (California coast). While the incoming trough will
increase the thermal gradient across the region and induce notable
southwest to west winds in the afternoon and evening, the split
will keep down the wind potential some with peak wind gusts
outside of thunderstorms still expected to be in the 30-40 mph
range. Of more importance for impacts downwind of dry lake beds,
the gradient is expected to bring sustained southwest-west winds
of 15-25 mph. Anecdotally, once you get sustained speeds of around
20 mph or greater substantial dust can be picked up and bring
large reductions in visibility downwind from sinks. At this time,
the areas that look most likely to be affected by significant
reductions in visibility (~ below 1 mile) are I-80 well east of
Fernley and Hwy 50 east of Fallon; however, localized poor
visibility is possible across much of west-central NV.

As for thunderstorms, it still looks good for isolated storms well
east of Highway 395 after about 2 PM Thursday as increased thermal
packing/frontogenesis around 700 mb brings added forcing for deep
convection. Any storms that form will rapidly move off to the
north/northeast so any rain amounts look light (mostly a tenth of
an inch or less) with most areas not seeing any rainfall with
narrow, fast-moving rain cores making for minimal coverage of
precipitation. A few thunderstorms could bring some small hail and
gusty winds of 40-50 mph. This is a concern as it could
exacerbate the dust issue, especially if storms can group together
and produce a wide swath of strong outflow wind.

Behind the front, it will cool closer to average Friday through
the weekend under northwest flow aloft on the backside of a trough
over the Rockies and eastern Great Basin. There is a concern for
around freezing temperatures for rural and suburban valleys over
the weekend so stay tuned if you have gardening concerns.
-Snyder

AVIATION...

Continued VFR Thursday with stronger winds as a cold front approaches.
Peak gusts of 30-35 kts and some light mtn wave turbulence. A few
thunderstorms are possible for west-central Nevada with some small
hail and gusty winds to 40 kts, mainly near the KLOL-KNFL terminals.
This threat will remain well east of the main forecast terminals.

Thursday night winds briefly increase aloft with stronger mtn wave
turbulence possible along with localized LLWS. Lighter winds Friday
into Sunday from the N-NW with gusts 20-25 kts and continued VFR.
-Snyder/X

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pyramid
     Lake in NVZ004.

CA...None.
&&

$$

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