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000
FXUS61 KRLX 060930
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
530 AM EDT Thu May 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure exits today. Low pressure moves in by evening
bringing rain. Cold front Friday. Unsettled weather continuing
through the weekend into the start of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 530 AM Thursday...

Cloud coverage has left us awhile ago allowing the area to
radiate a lot more efficiently these last few hours. Have
adjusted temperatures down slightly to reflect the latest
observations and trends. Areas may see another degree or two
drop until the sun rises and we get to endure some decent
heating before the clouds come back. Some isolated patchy frost
could still form in areas that are sheltered or protected that
experience locally colder conditions. The freeze warning remains
in effect for the highest elevations in Pocahontas and Randolph
counties until 9am today.

As of 140 AM Thursday...

Benign weather pattern in place for most of today as high
pressure drifts across the area toward the east promoting fair
weather and some diurnal cumulus cloud development with just
enough low level moisture, sunshine and modest lapse rates for
this afternoon. With some cloud development potential and
northwesterly flow still in place through the afternoon,
temperatures will only reach into the mid 60`s and low 50`s for
the lowlands and mountains, respectively. Flow will then shift
more southerly in response to the next system approaching from
the northwest later today. This feature, a surface low to the
north, will make its way east while spreading in slight chances
for rain showers as early as 8pm over our OH/KY counties ahead
of its cold front. Chances and then likely POPs will overspread
the entire area overnight and continue into the next period
associated with frontal passage.

During this event, anomalously low PWATS, weak instability and
unfavorable deep moisture will exist, so not much in the way of
moisture to allow for any significant accumulations or
thunderstorm activity. Mainly expecting just light scattered
rain showers throughout tonight and overnight, with some
isolated moderate showers possible. The pressure gradient is
fairly weak so not expecting much in the way of winds. This is a
fairly weak system which will only cause some unsettled weather
for the overnight going into the next period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 240 AM Thursday...

An upper longwave axis east of the area, with sfc low pressure
exiting the eastern mountains Friday morning. Lingering rain showers
may still possible over the eastern mountains Friday morning as weak
low pressure system exits east of the region.

A shortwave embedded within the H500 northwest flow digs southeast
into our area Friday night. This shortwave will bring moisture from
the Great Lakes region for additional showers mainly north and
northeast sections. Thereafter, H500 becomes zonal without any
significant embedded shortwave to affect the area for the weekend.
However, a southern stream system approaches the area Saturday night
into Sunday.

Temperatures will hold steady below their climatological norm for
this time of year during the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 AM Thursday...

A progressive upper level pattern will maintain unsettled weather
for the Middle Ohio Valley and West Virginia through the start of
next week. Broad high pressure then takes control of weather
conditions by mid week. Temperatures will remain below average
through this timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 AM Thursday...

Light northwest flow overnight into the morning then backing out of
the south by the late afternoon in response to an approaching
low pressure system to the northwest. Through the morning
valley fog may impact the eastern sites and may have variable
reduced VIS and some scattered low stratus, however should not
reach into the IFR category. This afternoon expect VFR with some
cumulus clouds scattered about with generally light flow as the
pressure gradient weakens.

By this late evening into tonight, chances of light rain
showers spread into the area from the west. Chances increase
across the entire area by the overnight with expected VIS
restrictions to be minimal since showers should be only light
in nature. CKB/EKN/PKB may see a moderate shower with VIS
restrictions since they will be close to the parent low as a
cold front sweeps through in the overnight. May have some
temporary MVFR, however should quickly bounce back to its
prevailing unrestricted VIS. CIGs should stay in the MVFR range
until the morning where some IFR may sneak into the mountains
near CKB/EKN/BKW (possibly in other terminals) associated with
frontal passage.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High Today. Medium overnight.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Flight categories may vary with cold
frontal passage overnight into Friday morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               THU 05/06/21
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible through Friday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JZ